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Julia

The Math of Eldritch Horror

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So, after some time spent on reading cards, gathering details and crunching numbers, the stochastic analysis of Eldritch Horror (and Forsaken Lore) is now completed.

 

In case some is interested in a deeper knowledge of the structure of the game, I posted the analysis on the BGG (not possible to up files here, sorry folks). Go here, if interested, download it & gently, thumb the entry.

 

If there's a good feedback, and interest is shown, I'll write the coming ones (stochastics for Research Encounters and all the rest) and I'll update the various files as soon as further expansions are published.

squad, eagermind, Wolfgar and 4 others like this

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Very nicely done Julia!

 

I wouldn't have thought to go into depth about how improvements affect the gate sealing chances, but that looks pretty important for figuring out the best strategy for who to send to seal.

 

I'd love to see how the research encounters turn out.  With this game turning out to be the toughest to beat out of the Arkham line, it seems effective division of labor is essential.

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Thanks for taking the time to look at the file, Squad :)

 

Research encounters were analyzed in two different ways: according to the minimum number of clues you can gain (some encounters allow you to pass an extra test to gain +1 clue; in this case the conditional probability was not considered, with the main aim to keep the math model as easy as possible), and according to the stats checked (what AO requires what stat to be tested the most, and so on). And this was done generally (considering all encounters in just one "research pot", if you allow me the neologism), and considering the three different environments (city, wilderness, sea) separately.

 

As you can immagine, it's a lot of numbers and transforming this into an article could be rather longish. But, as said, I'll be happy to do it :)

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Impressive work.  

 

I've been working on a creating a summary sheet for Eldritch Horror similar to what I prepared for Arkham Horror; however with respect to other Worlds this one blows my stuff away.  Fortunately, just as with AH, the goal of the my info is to give broad information on many topics, so you've not rendered my work obsolete. :) .  

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Julia,

 

      Nice work, my friend!  It's great to see the blending of art and science, with a dash of passion for your games!

 

Ciao,

Joe

Julia likes this

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Hi folks,

 

time to go deeper with our stochastic analysis of EH!

What are the stats most often tested during Research Encounters? Are all AOs demanding us to test the same attributes? Are all space types on the board (City, Wilderness, Sea) equally balanced? Do all AOs reward us with the same number of clues? How to choose the best Investigator to gain clues agains Yog or another AO?

Go here and check the new file :)

Cabello, klaymen_sk and Husker949 like this

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Hi Julia,

Any case you can do a brief write-up on Expedition encounters?  I'm curious about who are the best for gaining Artifacts from going on Expeditions.

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Hey, Squad,

 

sure, Expeditions are the next in line. But I cannot do this in too a short time (testing 4 games at the moment, and they are draining all my free-time, and most of my sleep-time). Plus, I was thinking to release the next installment in the series once Mountains of Madness is available, so that to present a (for now) complete analysis.

 

Hope you can wait!

 

 

JULIA

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Eagerly awaiting your MoM installment.

 

Also had a question regarding the OW encounters. You have analysis for increased Lore and Will but what about increasing off stats? Would someone like Jacqueline who is already good at Will and Lore get more benefit from increasing, say, Strength?

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Eagerly awaiting your MoM installment.

 

Numbers were crunched while we were testing the expansion. I just need to check whether something was changed after the beta was over, and write a little bit of text. Sadly, it's not the best moment in terms of free time, I'm busy with testing other three games. As soon as I've a chance, I'll post the updates. Some more patience; hopefully in a couple of weeks it should be upped on the geek

 

Also had a question regarding the OW encounters. You have analysis for increased Lore and Will but what about increasing off stats? Would someone like Jacqueline who is already good at Will and Lore get more benefit from increasing, say, Strength?

 

Well, boosting the other stat will certanly be benefical; still, I couldn't run simulations for all the stats, so that I chose those that were the most tested. Core set had 6 Lore, 8 Will, 4 Obs, 4 Inf and 0 Str tests, so that the natural choice was Lore and Will. At the moment (if nothing was changed after the beta for MoM) we should have 8 Lore, 11 Will, 8 Obs, 7 Inf and 3 Str tests, so that, if I had to invest on something, Strength would be the least interesting option

 

(not so sure if I answered your query, tho; in case, lemme know)

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