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  1. Yeah the game is brand new and whatever the market is now isn't a good example. Prior to release, a small group of people were willing to pay a lot for decks so they could play early and scan in decks to Table Top Simulator. Now you see people listing decks based on the number of rares, which is silly since a lot of rares are garbage. Others are chasing cards like the 4 horsemen, but that too will even out as more decks are opened and supply meets demand. No one really has enough experience to look at a deck of random Key Forge cards and determine the power level at this time, at best a few understand certain powerful commons and uncommons. One thing that could keep prices high for a bit is if FFG can't keep up with demand, but I'm not confident that will be an issue. The market for this game will settle out in time.
  2. CountBlah

    The app?

    I wonder how this all works with decks already registered to someone else? A transfer process for someone you know would be nice, but what if you don't know the person or they quit playing the game? Also, some people are listing decks online but not hiding the QR code. So someone could easily go register that in the app right now (though why?).
  3. How does a maverick show up on the deck contents card? I haven't seen an example yet, but I'd assume the card number of that maverick card would be out of the normal range for that house. Anyone seen an example?
  4. I think maverick cards were included for the surprise factor and to prevent stale game play. Like any card game you can memorize the card set list, but mavericks allow you to completely surprise an opponent. You can't prepare for or play around these (until you know it's in the deck). But since it's realistically only 1 maybe 2 cards in a deck it'll depend on the value they can bring. Most are probably worthless, but the right maverick in the right deck could be a thing of legend. I think that's sort of what they are going for here, creating cool and unique experiences that players will remember and tell stories about.
  5. Yeah, I think the starter box achieves a number of important goals. As someone who's taught a lot of games, this starter set solves a lot of things at once. Making a better new player experience is critical to making a game successful, I'm quite happy to see the attention put into it. 1) The two known quantity decks are incredibly useful for learning the game and allow for deck specific getting started instructions. This really smooths out the new player learning experience, and shouldn't be overlooked. Once you're experienced I could see just gifting these on to new players to get them interested, which is a net positive for the game. 2) Get's counters and stuff out there, and this game does have fair amount of counters to track. Again, to help reduce new player confusion (Is that dice representing damage, aember, stuns, etc) counters help a ton. 3) Getting 4 decks at once helps show how differently the game plays with varied decks, which is actually a key part of this design. With only a single deck there's risk that some mechanics won't appeal to a new player, this smooths that issue out as well. 4 decks in a starter also allows you to start teaching multiple people at a time.
  6. Some of the spoilers have collected over a 100+ decklists now, and I've been looking at them to get a grasp on the random unique nature of each deck. Each deck has 12 cards from 3 distinct houses, so I looked at how much overlap exists between decks with the same house. Specifically how much duplication can be expected in those 12 cards, based on the current set list. I found that most decks seem to share 2-4 cards when they both contain the same house. In rare cases the numbers were as low as 0 or or higher. So normally if you compared a decklist that shared only 1 house, 2-4 cards or 6-12% of the decks matched. Looking at the few examples where all 3 houses matched, the numbers were averaging out to the lower end and I generally found 6-8 matching cards across the entire decklists. Even in these cases, only 16-22% of the decks matched so they were very distinct from each other. What percentage of 2 decklists need to match up in order to be considered similar? I expect it would come down to specific cards, but expecting anything north of 33% looks like it would require 10s of thousands of decks. I'm not sure if this unique nature will kill out any collecting aspect or increase the perceived value of any specific deck because you have no real chance of finding a similar deck. On the other hand, embrace your decks because you won't likely see any others like them.
  7. Right, but do people just want random cards from that house or are they really expecting a couple specific cards they want from that house instead? I expect for most people it's that they want certain cards, because an Untamed faction with 2 hunting witches in a creature heavy deck is very different then an Untamed faction with 2 dust pixies and mainly actions and artifacts.
  8. I agree, this is a key challenge to physical game publishers. They have to try to satisfy the player demands versus the needs of the retailers. Fantasy Flight appears to be trying new approaches, they've built out some very unique print on demand options which now allows for other games like Keyforge, but major success for a physical game still seems to require that presence in game stores. Players are only getting more demanding, and I think that's understandable given the flexibility that digital games have to solve a lot of these issues. In many ways this is why I'm attracted to Keyforge, it simply removes a lot of the accumulated baggage that CCGs bring with them these days (collecting/trading, deckbuilding/netdecking, etc). But at the same time, a lot of people struggle with sheer randomness of it all.
  9. For a game selling into FLGS, you really have to consider the cost/benefit to the end retailer. From a retailers perspective they want to be able to sell all the product they buy at full price, so having decks they can't sell is a significant issue. Even just one or two per case seriously weakens their profit margins. Blind box games help to solve that issue for stores. An old example from back in the 90s; Magic cards used to be packaged in a thinner plastic pack where a person could actually read the card names. So certain people (or unscrupulous store owners) would go through each booster, find the best packs and only buy those. Once word of this got around, people wouldn't buy from those retailers any more as you knew you were going to get the junk packs that were left over. So the better stores had to train employees to prevent this, in order to just maintain their sales. Turning Magic away from random packs reduced sales, for both the company and the retailers. Magic had to update it's packaging to solve the problem and restore confidence in certain products.
  10. So I wanted to throw some more numbers out there. Before I do, I absolutely believe some decks and card combinations will be more powerful than others. People will naturally want to seek out the "best" decks, but I think people are vastly underestimating the difficulty. I mainly see people discussing favored houses. But even within each house there are 50+ cards. The incomplete lists on reddit are showing upwards of 16+ commons, 16+ uncommons, and the rest in rares. But if each deck only has approximately 12 cards out of that pool and commons seem to be in multiples, there will be significant variance in what any specific decks version of a given house looks like. The probability on each of these choices makes it increasingly unlikely to find a deck that meets your criteria. - Are you looking for specific house? 1 house, a combination of 2, or a combination of 3 specific houses? - For each favored house, you obviously are looking for specific common cards for each. So what are the odds those cards even appear for each of those houses? How many do you want to see? - Are you also hoping for certain uncommons, or even a specific rare? Good luck! - Just as important, are there specific cards you don't want in the deck? You can potentially choose 1 of these options. 2 options varies on your choices but could be 1 in 500 or 1 in 1000s (much higher depending on your choices). The math of trying to find these combinations make it incredibly improbable that a deck has A) been printed, B) been opened and C) listed somewhere for you to find and purchase. Realistically you can pick a single house and look for a couple of key cards in that house. And while a couple key cards in a deck may increase it's percentages in some match ups, it's unlikely to drive huge value. I simply don't think hunting for a good deck is viable in this way. Conversely, I do think decks with the "special" cards, like the four horsemen, should be rare enough to drive some value on the secondary market. These appear to be the unique "chase" cards, and even appear to add multiple cards to a deck causing a more meaningful change in the play style. If someone wants to try them, they'll likely need to buy a deck on the secondary market.
  11. There's one aspect of the unique deck feature that I'm not seeing discussed much, but which I feel adds a significant strength for keyforge. Assuming they get online play going, the potential amount of unique game play is astounding. Consider the experience of the Hearthstone ladder system, or any CCGs version of standard, where the majority of games are played against roughly 4-8 known quantity netdecks (some may differ by a card or two but are otherwise the same deck list). The reason many of us give up on that type of game play is the boring/repetitive nature of replaying the same match ups versus the same decks. Where as in an online keyforge format you could play 100s of games and rarely see anything resembling the same decks. Even if 2 decks have similar houses they will likely have very different cards, resulting in unique games. Considering only the current set list, there are upwards of 50+ cards per house. Those are distributed as 16+ commons, 16+ uncommons and the rest in rares/specials (basing this on the incomplete card lists on reddit). With each house having only 12 cards (mostly common and uncommon) from that list, duplication of card lists will be infrequent at best. Imagine that you managed to get 10 decks with the exact same 3 house combination, which at 1/35 chance would take roughly 3500 decks to accomplish, there should still be substantial variation in the commons and uncommons between each of those 10 decks based on this distribution model. ** As an aside, I think people are seriously underestimating the probability of finding similar "powerful" decklists. People will need to sort through hundreds or thousands of potential decks depending on how selective they are being. What FLGS will have that type of supply? Even on eBay that would require a massive secondary market and a huge amount of time. As a player, the thought of that variety in game play amazes me. Each time you use a different deck it multiplies the possibilities. So essentially if you enjoy the game but find yourself getting bored with your deck, a simple $10 purchase starts it all over with a unique deck. To say nothing of the possibility for expansions.
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