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jbrandmeyer

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  1. jbrandmeyer

    Let's Break 1,200 Point Games

    There are some potentially interesting mixes involving the defensive upgrades. First rank: MC80A, MC80B, MC80B, MC80B, MC80A, all with Exodus fleet and projection experts Second rank (interleaved with the first), Pelta, Neb, Neb, Pelta, all with projection experts Add Interceptors to taste. Up two 8 shields can be forwarded from the rear rank to the forward rank per turn. The forward rank all (but one) get 9 engineering points + one shield regenerated by StM, and they can share shields among them as needed depending on where the enemy tries to focus their efforts (so, up to 8 more shields forwarded by the neighbors). No Single Point Failure Faction: Rebel Alliance Points: 1200/1200 Commander: Leia Organa Assault Objective: Blockade Run Defense Objective: Contested Outpost Navigation Objective: Solar Corona Modified Pelta-class Assault Ship (56 points) - Raymus Antilles ( 7 points) - Projection Experts ( 6 points) - Intensify Firepower! ( 6 points) = 75 total ship cost Modified Pelta-class Assault Ship (56 points) - Veteran Captain ( 3 points) - Projection Experts ( 6 points) - Shields to Maximum! ( 6 points) = 71 total ship cost [ flagship ] Nebulon-B Support Refit (51 points) - Leia Organa ( 38 points) - Hondo Ohnaka ( 2 points) - Projection Experts ( 6 points) = 97 total ship cost MC80 Assault Cruiser (114 points) - Mon Calamari Exodus Fleet ( 5 points) - Major Derlin ( 7 points) - Projection Experts ( 6 points) - Reinforced Blast Doors ( 5 points) - Electronic Countermeasures ( 7 points) - X17 Turbolasers ( 6 points) - SW-7 Ion Batteries ( 5 points) = 155 total ship cost MC80 Battle Cruiser (103 points) - Mon Calamari Exodus Fleet ( 5 points) - Gunnery Team ( 7 points) - Projection Experts ( 6 points) - Spinal Armament ( 9 points) - X17 Turbolasers ( 6 points) - SW-7 Ion Batteries ( 5 points) = 141 total ship cost MC80 Battle Cruiser (103 points) - Mon Calamari Exodus Fleet ( 5 points) - Gunnery Team ( 7 points) - Projection Experts ( 6 points) - Spinal Armament ( 9 points) - X17 Turbolasers ( 6 points) - SW-7 Ion Batteries ( 5 points) = 141 total ship cost MC80 Assault Cruiser (114 points) - Mon Calamari Exodus Fleet ( 5 points) - Walex Blissex ( 5 points) - Projection Experts ( 6 points) - Reinforced Blast Doors ( 5 points) - Electronic Countermeasures ( 7 points) - X17 Turbolasers ( 6 points) - SW-7 Ion Batteries ( 5 points) = 153 total ship cost MC80 Battle Cruiser (103 points) - Mon Calamari Exodus Fleet ( 5 points) - Gunnery Team ( 7 points) - Projection Experts ( 6 points) - Spinal Armament ( 9 points) - X17 Turbolasers ( 6 points) - SW-7 Ion Batteries ( 5 points) = 141 total ship cost Nebulon-B Support Refit (51 points) - Redemption ( 8 points) - Ahsoka Tano ( 2 points) - Projection Experts ( 6 points) = 67 total ship cost 4 A-Wing Squadrons ( 44 points) 1 Shara Bey ( 17 points) 1 Tycho Celchu ( 16 points) 1 Hera Syndulla ( 28 points) 2 YT-2400s ( 32 points) 1 Corran Horn ( 22 points) = 159 total squadron cost Card view link Fleet created with Armada Warlords
  2. jbrandmeyer

    Rebel ram fleet

    Regarding the OP's fleet, maybe consider hyperspace assault for the yellow? The only thing more annoying than an arc-dodging CR90 is one that didn't even have to dodge an arc at all. You can't zombie all of the CR90's at once, anyway.
  3. jbrandmeyer

    Rebel ram fleet

    Yeah, I meant a Raddus fleet putting Fleet Ambush as their own Yellow objective. In this mission, player 2 makes the drop on a preferred flank of player 1's ambush zone at the top of turn 1. No risk to the flagship, since you make the drop before P1's first activation. Just the ordinary aggro-P1-in-your-face risks... starting even earlier! Its sortof like deciding that the best way to deal with an in-your-face P1, is to be in their face even faster.
  4. jbrandmeyer

    Rebel ram fleet

    Just to be clear, there is a specific reason that fleet ambush isn't often taken. There are definitely cases where you can make good advantage of fleet ambush as player 2. But the problem is that there are some first player fleets that will absolutely murder you with it instead. Avoiding Fleet Ambush is as much about avoiding a particular type of rock-paper-scissors matchup as anything else. Classic example: Demolisher-MSU (ie, high-activation fleet + Demo). Demo waits you out just outside red range, and then smacks you in the face at the bottom of turn one and the top of turn two. Modern Example: Pryce on an ISD. Same thing, only with one huge whallop at the top of turn 2. I flew with fleet ambush in a Madine list for a while, and had some substantial success with it. Then one day someone managed to put a pair of slicer tools in my face, and suddenly my navigation-dependent fleet couldn't navigate. There was some talk about Raddus making good advantage of Fleet Ambush, since he can use it to maximum effect, but I don't know if anyone has actually worked out the risk kinks.
  5. jbrandmeyer

    Ackbar Defiance regionals list

    Fortunately, I'm on US Mountain Time, so it isn't quite "half the night" yet It doesn't change the figures in a super-complex way, since the red pool and black pool are mostly orthogonal to each other. Best fleet composition is a matter of how you fly your ships, its objectives, and so on. I've only got two MC30, so I can't really comment on "best 3+ MC30 list", and that's getting pretty far away from the OP's list anyway. Some of my best activations with an Ackbar MC30S have been to take one short-range side shot and a long-range second side shot from the same MC30, nuking one ship and supporting another attack. Its harder to make the MC30S work this way now that TRC's are exhaust cards, but I think it still adds some versatility that isn't available in the MC30T. How much more damage do you get from TRC's? The probability that the red dice all come up double-hits (ie, the chance that you get zero advantage from TRC's) is (1/8)^n_dice. In a four-dice pool thats about one in 4000 throws. Its as close to "never" as makes no difference (and we'd already be suuuper thrilled by it), so lets just ignore it. The number of times you get +2 damage from TRC's is related to the number of blanks in the red pool, and the other abilities to fix those blanks. Sensor teams is one way to fix a blank. So are Intensify Firepower and Home One. So we go back to the distribution of blanks from my earlier post: 0.32 + 0.42*b + 0.21*b^2 + 0.05*b^3 + 0.004*b^4. Neglecting other dice fixes, 32% of the time TRC's add +1 (by converting a hit to a double) and the remaining 2/3 of the time they add +2. But since you only have one blank to fix a whopping 42% of the time, the impact of TRC's greatly depends on how many other dice fixes you have, and how many shots you are taking this round. Like I said in the first paragraph, you may want to save the TRC for a second side shot.
  6. jbrandmeyer

    Ackbar Defiance regionals list

    Re: math versus the meta Crunching the numbers like this is very much a micro-optimization. It can certainly help compare one ship to another in a strict A/B comparison sort of way, but I agree that it doesn't help you break out of the rock-paper-scissors battle. It also doesn't help you navigate your ships, or coordinate your attacks, which is where most of your benefits will come from. It can give you a range of reasonable expectations, though, and that's what I love about cranking through dice statistics like this.
  7. jbrandmeyer

    Ackbar Defiance regionals list

    So, how about those twins? Well, that's a trickier question to answer. We'd like to ask the question: "how often would I want to fix one pool, but not the other". To answer that, we need to set up a polynomial in two variables (evaluated in Octave as a 2D convolution), with a matrix of results. I'm also going to use "number of blank dice" as a proxy for "want to reroll some dice", which isn't necessarily true, but I think its true enough for this assessment. The full matrix of blank dice, with the 4-die pool of red in rows, and the 5-die pool of black in columns is this: 7.5085e-02 1.2514e-01 8.3427e-02 2.7809e-02 4.6349e-03 3.0899e-04 1.0011e-01 1.6685e-01 1.1124e-01 3.7079e-02 6.1798e-03 4.1199e-04 5.0056e-02 8.3427e-02 5.5618e-02 1.8539e-02 3.0899e-03 2.0599e-04 1.1124e-02 1.8539e-02 1.2360e-02 4.1199e-03 6.8665e-04 4.5776e-05 9.2697e-04 1.5450e-03 1.0300e-03 3.4332e-04 5.7220e-05 3.8147e-06 Fewer blanks are to the left and top, more blanks to the bottom and right. On-diagonal elements and in the lower right corner are hand-wringing ones where I'd like to reroll some of both pools. Elements in the top right and bottom left are places where I'd like to reroll only one pool, and the top left corner I'm happy with. I ... can't actually extract much value from that matrix, so I'm going to simplify it somewhat. Lets get simpler polynomials that capture 2+ blanks in the pool exactly one blank in the pool, and zero blanks. For the 4-die pool, thats [0.32 + 0.42*r + 0.26*r^2] and for the 5-die pool, that's (0.24 + 0.40*rb + 0.37rb^2). Turn the crank, and we get this matrix: 0.075938 0.126562 0.117500 0.099668 0.166113 0.154219 0.061699 0.102832 0.095469 That's a little bit easier to work with. Again: zero blanks on the top-left, 2+ on the bottom-right. We can see that 9.5% of the time we've got two blank dice in each pool at the same time, for which C&S can only help somewhat If only we had leading shots... 16.6% of the time we'd like to reroll one from each pool, which C&S also can't do. 30.3% of the time we've got one or less blank die in total. Yay! 16.4% of the time we'd definitely want to reroll the red pool and the black pool has one or fewer blank in it. 27.4% of the time we'd definitely want to reroll the black pool and the red pool has one or fewer blank in it I don't think that's a slam-dunk case for using C&S in this configuration, but its not bad.
  8. jbrandmeyer

    Ackbar Defiance regionals list

    With anybody but Ackbar, H9's on a torpedo frigate are definitely the standard (best?) way to get accuracies out of an MC30. Its only the combination of a large black pool and large red pool together that make sensor teams worthwhile - you can convert two readily-available blank dice into one desperately needed accuracy. Here's my justification in more detail: The distribution of blank red or black dice can be generated by expanding the polynomial (0.75 + 0.25*b)^n_dice. The coefficients tell you the probability of each result, and the powers of b tell you how many blanks are in that particular result. For four red dice, the distribution for blanks is (I'm rounding some), 0.32 + 0.42*b + 0.21*b^2 + 0.05*b^3 + 0.004*b^4. So, about one in four times you'll have two or more blank red dice, and about 2/3 of the time you'll have one or more blank red dice. For five black dice, the result is 0.24 + 0.40*b + 0.26*b^2 + 0.09*b^3 + 0.015*b^4 + 0.001*b^5. So in the exracks-augmented black pool you'll have at least one blank die to burn 3/4 of the time. How much damage does the black pool do? [0.25 + 0.5*d + 0.25*d^2]^n_black. In five black dice, the full distribution (skipping terms with probability < 0.01) 0.04*b^2 + 0.12*b^3 + 0.21*b^4 + 0.25*b^5 + 0.21*b^6 + 0.12*b^7 + 0.04*b^8. 83% chance of doing 4 or more damage. That's enough whallop that I'm usually happy with it versus small prey. TRC's practically guarantee 3+ damage in the red pool, even after converting one to an accuracy. So, reliably getting 7+ damage, frequently more. Ordnance experts are also great stuff. Since they make every black die rerollable, the distribution is pumped up to (0.0625 + 0.625*d + 0.3125*d^2)^n_dice. Discounting extra-rare results as before gives 0.01*d^3 + 0.06*d^4 + 0.20*d^5 + 0.31*d^6 + 0.26*d^7 + 0.12*d^8 + 0.03*d^9. What does that mean? Don't be shocked when you smack down 8+ damage out of the black pool alone since that happens 1/6 of the time. But more tactically realistic is the 72% chance of doing 6+ damage. On average, you get +1.25 damage out of a 5-die pool by going with ordnance experts. Looping back to the pool of red dice... Four red dice gives you zero accuracies 57% of the time. So the defender will usually get full use of their defense tokens. That Nebulon or Gladiator just braced down the damage to half. A CR90 just redirected away two damage, etc. Sensor teams will guarantee at least one accuracy in the pool, and 43% of the time you'll have two. I've one-shotted an AF2B with an only slightly better than average roll in this configuration (2 accuracies and 8 damage into the rear arc). I wasn't *counting* on it happening. But at a bare minimum I knew that it was going to be down two zones of shields, have one face-up card, and 2-3 more cards on it. PS: I use the Matlab/GNU Octave function 'conv()' to perform the polynomial expansions quickly.
  9. jbrandmeyer

    Ackbar Defiance regionals list

    I find that any more than three red dice has too much variance for me to have fun throwing them without something to control them. Five is entirely too many. Therefore, an Ackbar MC30S needs TRC's much more than Enhanced Armament. You'll throw enough damage to kill small-medium prey, but only with at least one accuracy in the pool. Otherwise, they'll limp away or require you to ram them with your puny 4 hull for the kill. Sensor Teams can help with that. MC30S, TRC's, ExRacks, Sensor Teams, Admonition: 92 points. Its a small-ship hunting monster. Its also a glass cannon, but its a lot of fun when it goes off Just be mindful that to kill many small ships you'll need two accuracies to kill them in one shot. Examples include Yavaris' double-brace, or a Pelta's Brace+Redirect. You've got only slightly less than 50% odds to get one natural accuracy on a pool of 4x red dice, so, may the force be with you.
  10. Cute. I'd fly it. But you've totally got the base on backwards :)
  11. jbrandmeyer

    Lancers, Scurrgs and Z95s anyone?

    Z95's complement X-Wings in a small group, especially if you have spare squadron command value (say, from assault frigates or MC80H). 3 X-wings and 3 Z-95's makes a nice SFC with a bit of extra deployment help. But with Raddus around, I prefer the mobility of A-Wings now. In a large group, with no way to control the red dice, they just aren't reliable enough in the ship attack role to be worthwhile for me.
  12. jbrandmeyer

    Best Rebel squad combos under 80-100 points

    There are maybe three basic ways to fly an MFC. Escort-based wings need to stick together. It acts like a shield wall, with the escorted buddies stabbing the enemy out from inside the ball, and the escorts act as the shields. Interceptor-based wings hang out on the periphery, engaging only one or two of the enemy per squadron, spread around. It keeps the enemy from concentrating their firepower or their Intel on any one place. If either of the above are accompanied by a sufficiently nasty bomber buddy (say, Gold Squadron, Nym, or Norra), then the bomber buddy can make a separate attack run. This forces the enemy to deteach two or more fighters to separately engage the bomber buddy, spreading around their damage to more of your own forces. In all cases, flak can make or break the squadron game. Try to control the engagement to be in range of your own supporting flak, and away from the enemy's. A slow wing needs to hug the source of its own flak. A fast wing can engage before its own flak support shows up, but only for one turn or so. I almost always prefer an MC80 Battle Cruiser over the Star Cruiser for the simple reason that it has better flak.
  13. jbrandmeyer

    Best Rebel squad combos under 80-100 points

    The Shara/Tycho/2x A-Wings combination is definitely my favorite SFC. They also help as a better Raddus counter compared to Jan, Biggs, 2x X-Wings. But whenever someone shows up completely squadronless (say, 2x ISD + minimal support), I find that the A-wings just don't pull their weight. An MFC must pull its weight when the other guy shows up squadronless. It also needs to be fast enough to get to combat without too much extra support, or you may as well go max squadrons. So lets look at some things that aren't dedicated bombers, which I will classify as anything that has Bomber but is not Heavy. I'll also include the blue+black dudes for good measure. Being non-heavy means that it can assist the fighter (or interceptor) core when facing a max squadrons fleet. You can simply accept that you won't win the squadron fight, and can instead focus on slowing them down enough to attack the carriers. Norra Wexley: Complements X-Wings very nicely, acting as a force multiplier for them in a squadronless fight. Against max Sloane or max bombers, she can break out of the biggsball, bringing her 2x braces and 6 hull to the fight. Dutch Vander: Also complements X-Wings. His crit effect helps immensely in the squadron game, especially paired with Wedge. But without the Norra crit effect, a biggsball just isn't punchy enough against modern large ships. Save him for an LFC. Gold Squadron: Also complements X-Wings. Consider subbing out one of the X-Wings for Gold Squadron. Lancers: Complements A-Wings. As Rogues, they also reduce the support requirements. Two flotillas is enough to activate Shara, Tycho, 2x A-Wings, and have a pair of Lancers show up to the party on their own. One well-timed squadron command (on the next turn) may be all they need to get their job done. Green Squadron: Also complements A-Wings, but needs an activation to get into the fight. B-WIngs, of any form: leave at home. Their speed handicap keeps them from properly assisting an MFC for me, even Ten Nub. Hera. Very expensive by herself. But, she can make two buddies Rogue, reducing the support requirements dramatically. Her anti-ship dice aren't outstanding, but they do perform about as good as a BCC-assisted Y-Wing on their own. Han. Also very expensive. Doesn't grant Rogue to anyone else, but is himself a Rogue. Shoots first, which make it easier for him to get work done as a finisher. I'm not sure what he complements though, so I don't typically field him. Dash. Complements YT-2400, and is his own personal BCC. But I don't own that many YT-2400, so I don't have any experience with this kind of MFC. Supposedly they work as finishers, though, complementing hard-hitting fast-movers like MC30 and Engine Tech MC80 Liberties. So with all that in mind, here are my favorite MFC's. You'll note that the ability to get in an extra attack with Rogue followed by a Yavaris attack is quite a bit more powerful than just the Yavaris attack by itself. Which seems obvious when presented this way, but many folks decry the "Rogue tax" anyway. Total squadron investment to play with all of them is Rogues and Villains, 2x Rebel Squadrons I, 1x Rebel Squadrons II, and Corellian Conflict, so nothing too spammy. Shara, Tycho, Green Squadron, 1x A-Wing, 2x Lancers (86), 2x comm net flotillas = 126 points, 24 hull, two scatter aces. Can scale up to include Toryn and a BCC for 139, but it doesn't have to. Can also upgrade one Lancer to Ketsu for +7, gaining a third scatter ace, better bombing, and some extra anti-Intel shenanigans. Complements: anything that would much rather be navigating than yelling at squadrons (HH, CR90, MC30, MC75, MC80 Liberty). With their speed and volume, this wing makes Superior Positions a solid alternative to Solar Corona. Their speed can be a liability if they get too far out of range of their support ships. Versus max squadrons, they have to spread out around the periphery. In total, 5.25 anti-ship damage without a BCC, 6.0 with one. Best case attack run of both Lancers followed by a Yavaris double with all three bombers is 10 dmg with a BCC. Jan, Biggs, Norra, 3x X-Wings (94), 2x Flotillas, Comm net, Toryn and a BCC comes to 147 points, 20 Biggs-shared escort hull, two brace aces (or 26 hull + three brace aces if you're willing to separately engage Norra). Swapping out one X-Wing for Gold Squadron cuts it down to 146 (27 hull, three brace aces). IMO, it needs the BCC too much to drop it, but maybe Toryn is optional. It will require a squadron command from at least one more combat ship to aid it... but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Complements: Big ships that aren't too desperate for navigation commands (MC80, AFII). Hates: EWS, since they may not be fast enough to reach around the obstruction field. Doesn't mind going second quite as badly, since it can muscle through much more than the interceptor group above. Versus max squadrons, they have to stay close together. In total, 7.8 damage versus shielded opponents, 6.0 versus unshielded. Yavaris attack run without a preamble (Norra, 2 X-wings double-tapping) brings 9.25 versus a shielded opponent, and only 6.62 versus an unshielded target. That's fine, we were shooting first anyway. Hera, 2x X-Wings, Gold Squadron, 1x Scurrg, 1x Z-95 (89), 1x flotilla w/BCC, Yavaris with flight commander (180), and a deep bid. Technically it has 33 hull, but it relies so strongly on the X-Wings for anti-squadron that it sure doesn't feel like it. The Z-95 pads the wing up to three deployments and does add a bit of unpredictable anti-squadron damage. While the other wings are nicely complemented with Yavaris, she is mandatory with this wing. Hera acts as a less-predictable Pryce, allowing you to boost Yavaris from 6 squadron attacks to 9 in a row. Facing max squadrons? Triple-tap her with the X-Wings. Facing squadronless? Bring in the bombers, baby. This is very much a bid-dependent one-hit wonder. If you choose your target well, it can turn the battle, but if you choose poorly it feels like a total waste. 7.3 anti-ship damage total (4.94 anti-ship damage from Hera and the main bombers). Yavaris attack run (Hera, Scurrg, Gold, all triple tapping) brings 14.8 dmg.
  14. Take a nebulon. Give it stronger side arcs, a wider front arc, and a redirect, and you've got something (defensively) like a Pelta. The trouble remains that fleets like a double-Cymoon and precision-piloted MC75 will still nuke it pretty quickly. The trouble is that all of the frigates (command-2 ships) short of Admo and Mon Mothma-amped up Foresight are in bad shape right now.
  15. On a Command-2 ship, yes exactly. If you have any software engineering background, the "command stack" is a misnomer. It is actually more like a "command queue", with the write end being the physical bottom of the stack of dials, and the read end is the physical top of the stack of dials. SFO pops off the read end of the queue. Officer Leia Organa allows you to replace the element on the read end of the command queue, and so on. At the end of the Command Phase, every ship's command queue should be completely filled to that ship's command value.
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