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Baltanok

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  1. Baltanok

    Regionals Data Project 2018-2019 Season

    OK, did a quick run through Pryce fleets- top 25% of pryce fleets vs bottom 25%, plus Non-pryce winning imps (NPWI) Successful Pryce fleets have less investment in ships (258 points) & more investment in squads (130) than unsuccessful Pryce fleets (ship 278, squad 110) or winning empire (323 ship, 69 squad) (note that ship investment points include upgrades & admirals, not just the raw durasteel tonnage) deployments not notably different, with all groups ranging from 5.8 to 6.0 deployments. Pryce is generally low activation (win 2.3, lose 2.8) vs winning imps (4.4) Also generally low flotilla, as would be expected from that activation average (0.3 vs 1.3 for NPWI) winning pryce is more likely to have medium ships (0.94 vs 0.44 NPWI), less likely to have Demo (0.2 vs 0.46 NPWI) (looks like Pryce likes quasars) Avenger is not notably different (0.5 vs 0.44) Hope that helps. I know that you asked about factors in tournaments, but making that sort of analysis is hard, without having some sort of tournament-wide metric that we could look at. (i.e. the Austin regional had average of 62 squads, while the FFG HQ regional had 75 average squad points.) Then I'd have to sort out tournaments which had pryce winning from those that pryce lost at. It's not impossible, but it would be a major undertaking, and unless we had a tournament metric that has significant variance, we'd probably end up with "minor differences between tournament fields - I got nothing useful to say."
  2. Baltanok

    To Christmas Tree - a data analysis query

    By picking evenly sized starting groups, it would be more obvious to the casual reader if high upgrades was a more successful strategy than average or low. It was a pretty standard technique in my stats classes to divide populations into quartiles or quintiles. I used the same brackets for guns vs carriers to make it easy to compare the two. reviewing the formulas, the brackets are all off by one. I used "less than" because "less than or equal to" is harder in excel, but didn't adjust when I wrote the brackets. Oops.
  3. To avoid clogging up @Truthiness's data collection thread, here's a separate thread... Based on an inquiry by @Rocmistro, I decided to look at how many points are generally spent on upgrades, and how those groups fare in competition: All Fleets <51 31 15 8 5 2 52-57 32 13 9 7 2 58-66 34 23 17 4 1 67-77 33 20 10 5 3 78+ 30 16 8 5 3 Gunboats <51 10 3 1 0 0 52-57 11 3 3 2 1 58-66 13 9 6 1 0 67-77 23 14 7 3 1 78+ 25 13 7 4 2 Carriers <51 21 12 7 5 2 52-57 21 10 6 5 1 58-66 21 14 11 3 1 67-77 10 6 3 2 2 78+ 5 3 1 1 1 So, the brackets were chosen to be roughly evenly sized. Carriers are 80+ points in squadrons & gunboat fleets have less than that. results: Not that informative. Very few fleets use less than 40 upgrade points or more than 95, with most between 52 & 77. But no particular tilt towards christmas trees or nudists in the winning brackets. Carriers tend to use fewer upgrades than gunships, but the people who brought upgrade heavy carriers or upgrade light gunboats did about as expected. I suspect that you could find some questions that might give clear results, like "do ackbar or vader fleets use few upgrades successfully?" but nothing that I feel that I could crank out in a hurry. another interesting question would be upgrade points spent on the ship with the most upgrades. (one big hitter vs two threats, etc.)
  4. Baltanok

    Regionals Data Project 2018-2019 Season

    I haven't run the numbers in detail this year, but I vaguely remember that 60-70 points of upgrades was reasonable. When I get home, and can use a real keyboard to look at the numbers, I'll write something up. Suggested measures? Upgrade % for top/all fleets: Carrier vs gunship fleets?
  5. Baltanok

    Regionals Data Project 2018-2019 Season

    Metrics that I have used in the past are: Top % - bottom % : tells me if a card is biased top/bottom Top% + bottom%: how skill dependent a card is Both of these could do with a representation weighting. The only person who brought Hera winning a regional is less significant than if 27 people brought Hera and all ended up in the top bracket. % of ship points spent on a specific ship variant:. Tells me which ships are being taken surprisingly often or rarely. Every rebel fleet taking an mc80 is more significant than every rebel fleet taking a cr90.
  6. Baltanok

    Regionals Data Project 2018-2019 Season

    One thing that I have done in the past is dump the file to excel and do specific analysis offline. Since I've just leveled up at work, I probably won't have time to do much of that this season, unless I get to take my work computer home. (Phrase I didn't expect to hear at work:. We just confiscated 15 horses from an illegal rodeo. Now I need to figure out the budget implications.)
  7. Baltanok

    Nordics (nationals) 2018

    I misread that as "Goooooooooooal!"
  8. I probably should dig out the physical Jan card to be sure, but I don't see "unique" mentioned on palp or the faq version of Jan. For that matter, I can't see a reason that the Intel officer has to choose a defense token belonging to the defender. Just "choose a defense token."
  9. Baltanok

    Pro-Imperial Anthology Film?

    I do not want "teach the controversy" about the innocent crew killed aboard the death star, I do not want "Alderaan was an inside job" and I do not want to "both sides" Base Delta Zero. I do not know if I personally would have the courage to leave my wife a widow and my daughter without a father to fight an evil government. But I do want inspirational stories about fighting evil. And someone throwing grit in the gears of the Empire is a Rebel, just as much as someone flying an X-wing or planting a bomb. If someone wrote a character-driven story about an imperial bureaucrat issuing transit vouchers to Mon Calamari escaping to the outer rim, that would be an interesting story, but not "pro-imperial" in my book.
  10. Baltanok

    Do VSDs need an overhaul?

    Yes, yes we do. Wave 7 regionals: all fleets: 72 of 382 made it to top 4 (19%) All Imperial 37/155 (24%) At least 1 ISD 30/120 (25%) 2+ ISD 10/37 (27%) So, fleets with ISDs are more likely to end up in the top 4 than fleets without them. ISD's also appeared reasonably reliably in the top cuts in the tournaments covered by the overnight report. (thanks @Captain Weather) top 4 at one of (German, UK, US, Euro, NorthAm, or world champs) 10/24 have ISDs
  11. Baltanok

    Mel Miniatures Wishlist

    Just recently received the 24 transport pack, and the resistance A-wings. Very nice work. The A-wings are just the right size for embiggening, similar to Armada X-wings & Rebellion X-wings. https://drive.google.com/open?id=13pXK2xsV9SbQheLfiOCo4MP_lNlywzhY need to paint up some deluxe paint jobs for my A-wing aces. Think I should put hot-rod flames on for Tycho?
  12. Baltanok

    Faq Screed

    I believe he can now use his ability while a friendly ship is attacking during an enemy ship/fighters activation. Possibly combining QLT and Kallus to get a black anti-squadron die.
  13. Baltanok

    Does the Empire need a CR90 equivalent?

    Ms. Baltanok climbed up Mrs. Baltanok, then very deliberately pushed the power button on her computer. She is also super strong, so if Snipafist Jr needs a sparring partner in the Thunderdome...
  14. Baltanok

    Does the Empire need a CR90 equivalent?

    Do you want Regionals or majors? Counting the top4 lists from recent majors (worlds, Euro, Gencon, NoVa, UK, German): 11 rebel lists total, 7 with CR, 8 with Hammers. Major Imps: 9 lists, 1 with Raider, 4 with Arqs Rebels were also more likely to use multiples, with 8 lists using 2+, and 2 using 3. Imps only had 2 lists with 2 smalls (one pair of raiders at UK, and a pair of Arqs at Gencon) Regionals, wave 7: Rebel 29 top 4, 3 with CR, 3 with HH Imp 38 top 4, 6 with Raiders, 3 with Arqs Conclusions: At recent major tournaments, top rebel fleets used small combatants, to a significantly higher degree than imperial fleets. This is substantially different from regional wave 7, where relatively few top contenders used the smallest combatants.
  15. Baltanok

    Nova

    judging from a post in SF Bay area armada facebook: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10214265972097869&amp;set=pcb.1894949904144286&amp;type=3&amp;theater&amp;ifg=1 1: 45 pts 2: 38 3: 35/617 4:34/960 5: 34/869 6: 34/678 7: 33/758 hope that helps.
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