If you took the time to read Julia's awesome post, I expect you'd be interested in reading another long post talking about my role in this endeavour. I want to thank Julia and her husband for involving me in this project, and I'm very excited that they will be posting our findings to the community. If this were a book, I feel like I should be writing the forward here. Julia and her husband spent quite some time working out some the math behind the game in order to analyze the balance in terms of adventure probability, rewards gained, average number of elder signs offered as rewards, and other such things. Julia's husband put together some impressive Excel spreadsheets with some detailed formulas to calculate the probability of passing the adventures. But as it turns out, calculating the odds of passing a relatively easy adventure involves a long and tedious formula, even if you greatly simplify the assumptions and cut corners. This is where I came in. I'm a computer scientist. Independently of Julia and her husband, I was thinking about how to write a program that calculated Elder Sign adventure probabilities by simulating them. At the early stages of the program's creation, I talked with Julia about it and that's when our team effort began. I created a framework that can represent adventures, tasks, and dice, and developed an algorithm that can roll dice and use them to complete adventures much in the way a human would. If I repeat the process many, many times, I can find how many times I succeeded out of the total number of runs, and with a large enough number of trials, I can get a relatively good approximation of the true odds of passing the adventure by playing similar to the way a real human would (thanks to the law of large numbers). Because it's a simulation, I didn't have to write any crazy formulas or do any real math other than some simple adding and subtracting. I was able to add support for things like: * Retrying the adventure with one less die after a failed roll * Handle adventures with many tasks and/or requirements * Adding the red and/or yellow dice * Adding the cursed (black) die * Factoring in locked dice * Terror effects that fail the adventure or devour you * Trying to complete the most difficult adventure first when more than one can be completed with the rolled dice Though my algorithm that attempts the adventure is far from perfect, it's good enough to get pretty good results, and Julia and her husband have been able to take these probabilities and use them to great effect in their analysis and really explore the deeper math behind the game. The program took a week or two to get preliminary results, and enhancements made gradually over the last few weeks have resulted in the improvements mentioned above. I maintain that my role in this was but a small part of Julia and her husband's overall analysis, but even so, this exercise has been an incredibly successful collaboration. Each of us has helped make the others' work better and the fruits of our labor will soon be made to all of you. I hope all of you enjoy reading about it as much as we did working on it.