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MajorJuggler

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About MajorJuggler

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  1. MajorJuggler

    [1.0] How are the new x-wings doing?

    There's lots of things that I haven't lost to too, but it's still just anecdotal evidence. Round 8 of Worlds 2015 (only year I went), I beat a Chewie / Leebo list with PS8 Brobots. I had never lost to Chewie / Leebo. He had never lost to BroBots. One of us had to lose though. Quad TLT is a turd of a list to fly but if you look at the tournament data you might be surprised at how much later it continued to occasionally pop up. You can't really say the same of the lists it displaced. Dig through the tournament data to verify, but I recall it winning a nontrivial tournament or two well beyond its prime. Another single data point, I think it was about a year (or two?) later, Ira took it to worlds with 0 practice and almost made the cut. In any event. The powercreep has obviously continued past wave 7. Asking if wave 7 TLT would be top-tier in a wave 14 environment without Miranda/Ghost is a very different question than if TLT Y-wings were powercreep relative to what came before it. You are of course entitled to your opinion that TLT was fine at the time, as many playtesters also thought. It's a rather redundant point now with 2.0, unless we are trying to improve design insight to make 2.0 a better place.
  2. MajorJuggler

    [1.0] How are the new x-wings doing?

    Later content like the ghost double tap was even greater power creep, but even at the time of initial release TLT Y-wings were quantifiable power creep. It made the previous top-tier generic jousters essentially obsolete (TIE Fighters, Z-95), and immediately started pushing them out the meta.
  3. MajorJuggler

    [1.0] How are the new x-wings doing?

    To be fair to the developers, I don't think it was known to be OP before release. During playtesting they had someone else running the calculations on how cost effective it would be, and got input that it was OK. After it was announced I ran my own numbers (I have never been in playtesting), and came to a very different conclusion. But the developers' hands were tied by that point. I agree that some sort of errata would have been appropriate several months in, once it became clear to the mainstream that it was too good.
  4. MajorJuggler

    Will the App be working for GenCon?

    They will presumably make the squad building PDF available at the same time that the app goes live, so even if the app has issues you can still manually build lists.
  5. MajorJuggler

    First Edition: a Living Rulebook?

    I expect it to take quite a while before 2e is balanced well, at least 2 cost revisions to get in the ballpark, and another one to fine tune. FFG will be doing 3 or 4 cost revisions per year, so expect it to take a half a year to a year before 2e is reasonably well balanced.
  6. MajorJuggler

    First Edition: a Living Rulebook?

    This sounds a lot like the X-wing community Mod that I was putting together - which is essentially ready to go, it just needs someone motivated to build a squad builder for it.
  7. MajorJuggler

    Best X-Wing podcasts?

    Ed stopped playing X-wing, and he was the driving force behind it. There's rumors that it might kick up again, who knows!
  8. MajorJuggler

    Best X-Wing podcasts?

    Nova Squadron Radio for the win! Unfortunately it's all just reruns, and the battle reports are still 5 hours long.
  9. MajorJuggler

    IG-88 Brobots/Tribots in 2.0 - speculation, discussion and builds

    I would expect a naked Defender to cost more than a naked IG88, because it's better. Almost the same stat line, but better action economy (x7 free evade most rounds), and the white 4K. That's pretty obvious. No comment on how close 72 points is to what the Defender should cost. 😁
  10. MajorJuggler

    Forget Super Dash and Fat Han, let's talk Lando!

    Yeah, focus + TL is also solid sometimes. I played the same action economy game with Asajj when flying Parattanni. Sometimes you go full turtle and sometimes you go full offense, it all depends on what the opponent leaves open for you. Good call. Saves the mod slot for something else. I forget offhand, what's Ezra's ability let you do? reroll one die when attacking if stressed? Yeah it changes quite a bit if it's just one gunner + one crew. I thought I heard someone say the devs said this is likely, but I have no real citation. We'll find out eventually.
  11. MajorJuggler

    Forget Super Dash and Fat Han, let's talk Lando!

    Yup, Nien Numb + Perceptive Copilot + Engine Upgrade + Millennium Falcon title is the baseline Lando version that I have been using for cost estimates. Assuming no bump, Lando always focuses and then either boosts or evades. Or, if you messed up your maneuvering, burn an action to rotate the turret. I haven't thought about the gunner and EPT slots as much yet. Lone Wolf seems like an obvious choice for increasing the damage output. Lando will have a few different viable upgrade options, assuming the upgrades are costed appropriately.
  12. MajorJuggler

    Sometimes you really have no chance ...

    FYI: 2 defenders have a better chance to beat 30 attackers in Risk than 2 defenders in Axis and Allies have vs 10 attackers (assuming hits on 1 or 2 for all). The odds of 2 artillery successfully defending (even to a draw) vs 30 incoming artillery is one in 2.7 * 10^54. To put in context.... that would be like successfully flying through an asteroid field 15 times in a row (3720 to 1), and then rolling a natural 6 on a d6. Axis and Allies distributions are nothing like Risk. :-)
  13. MajorJuggler

    Sometimes you really have no chance ...

    Yes, it is essentially Lanchester's Law. The resulting "power curve" equation assuming exact focus fire is slightly different than Lanchester's solution, since he assumed the armies can be dissected into an infinite number of small components, vs X-wing's discrete number of units that continue to put out damage until they are totally dead. (The resulting equation is not published in my old thread, only an approximate curve fit.) But at a high level yes the approach is the same. Most of what you describe can be modeled as changing a ship's firing duty cycle, which is a function of player skill and also arc type. Fundamentally, a ship's firing duty cycle and efficiency are linked together. Obviously if you get more shots on target, then your expected damage output goes up, and along with it your efficiency. So there are two ways to approach it. 1) You can calculate a ship's combat value assuming a 100% firing duty cycle to get it's straight-line jousting efficiency. These are the oft-quoted "jousting values" but don't tell the whole story. Now you need to figure out what firing duty cycle is required to get this ship's efficiency to match the standard baseline. For example, a turret needs to get more shots because its straight-line efficiency should be much lower than a jouster. There is a direct mathematical relationship between the two, and we also have a lot of empirical data that tells us what the "efficiency goldilocks zone" is for different ship types: jouster, arc dodger, turret, etc. So if you know what the target efficiency should be, then this is the simplest approach. 2) You can change the ship's duty cycle directly, by multiplying it's expected damage output by some scalar value. When you calculate the resulting efficiency it now has the "I flew better/worse than you and/or had a turret" directly baked in, so you can compare apples to oranges and are looking for all ships to have about the same efficiency. (bombers and control type ships obviously excluded). This approach is very useful as a player, because it defines what you need to do tactically to be competitive. However this is slightly less useful from a design standpoint, because player skill has a wide distribution. It still makes for a good check that you're not requiring players to have to fly TOO good to make a ship viable, but remember that you can still back into it via method #1 if you know ahead of time what the target efficiency is. There is another factor: swarms of ships have difficulty all getting shots on target if the opposing force is smaller, or at the very least they have an inferior range bin distribution for attacking. I.e. if you only have 1-2 ships then you can focus on the closest TIE in a swarm, but the TIEs in the back are stuck shooting at long range, effectively lower the TIEs' expected damage output. Right now I'm not directly including this effect (yet), so it can gets lumped into the catch-all "firing duty cycle" coefficient above, which more broadly can encompass any effect not just missing shots. A better way to account for this effect would be to uniquely define the range bin distributions for each ship, but I will have to redo my code to do that. Since I'm not publishing numbers for Second Edition, refactoring the code is lower on the priority queue. :-)
  14. MajorJuggler

    Sometimes you really have no chance ...

    Right, the point being that in Risk your army's combat power is linearly proportional to the size of your forces, whereas in Axis and Allies (and X-wing for the most part), your army's combat power is proportional to the square of the size of your forces. If you have 30 guys in Axis and Allies, then they each roll a die with a chance to hit. In Risk all it gets you is more meatshields. I also have a script to calculate Axis and Allies combat, I'll have it calculate the absurd impossibility tonight of 2 beating 30, just for kicks. If you like Lord of the Rings Risk, then I highly recommend War of the Ring Second Edition, which is a far better game. It's currently #2 ranked war game on BoardGameGeek, and #5 ranked thematic game (was #1 thematic until it was dethroned by Pandemic Legacy).
  15. MajorJuggler

    Sometimes you really have no chance ...

    Yeah. For kicks I'll see what 25v2 works out to when I get home tonight and have access to my scripts. Axis and Allies handles combat better in that regard, overwhelming numbers actually helps.
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