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What are the odds?


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#1 fhaugh

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Posted 27 October 2012 - 07:18 AM

Just want to check my math here.  I know the odds of a hit on one die is 1:3, and a blank is 2:3.  Am I correct the odds of a hit with a re-roll and 5:9?

If that's right, then a command squad in the the new command vehicle has a 55.5% chance of re-activating or bringing back a unit!  Definitely worth 75pts.



#2 ??!

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Posted 27 October 2012 - 07:35 AM

You are right about the math, the probability for rolling (or rerolling) into a success for the Command abilities is 5:9  - in any given turn. So the probability to bring back a unit is actually higher that that, depending on the number of game turns of course.



#3 fhaugh

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Posted 27 October 2012 - 01:36 PM

 So getting a blank with a re-roll would be 8:9?  Makes sustained fire with spotter almost a sure thing.



#4 Loophole Master

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Posted 27 October 2012 - 03:56 PM

fhaugh said:

So getting a blank with a re-roll would be 8:9?  Makes sustained fire with spotter almost a sure thing.

Yep, as anyone who's done that can attest.

 

Though, of course, if it's really critical that you hit… you'll still go with the remaining 1:9.



#5 Lska

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Posted 27 October 2012 - 09:03 PM

 You boys show those numbers to my phasers…



#6 mgentile7

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 02:53 PM

Ok then what are the odds of my SSU close combat squad attacking a squad of axis grenadiers in close combat and scoring no damage? Yes no damage.



#7 fhaugh

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 03:04 PM

Directly proportional to the vitality of their success.






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