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#1 Aahzmandius_Karrde

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Posted 07 September 2012 - 10:30 AM

 I posted a part of this in another thread but I was still working on the whole.

I'm waiting for a PDF to be approved at BGG, I'll post a link when it's available.


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#2 DavicusPrime

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Posted 07 September 2012 - 10:49 AM

looks like a TIE on TIE fight needs to be fought at range 1 for your shots to be decisive.

Being used to D6 games, going to a D8 and using specialized dice really complicates the Probability scores.  I've worked out the numbers for 1 thru 4 Dice for both A&D dice.  I must have done things right as they are matching your numbers.

One of the things I've worked out is the average results for each roll.  It's starting to look like focus is a great action for X-wings.  On average you're going to get one hit and one focus, as well as a little less than a 50% chance of a crit.  While a TIE will be getting on average one Evasion and one Focus result.   Which means on average a TIE is going to want to be using an Evasion action when ever its in an X-Wing's arc to get out of there uncooked.

TIE vs. TIE is kinda rough unless you can get that extra attack die through close range or special ability.  Two attack dice will get you a good chance of a Hit and 50% chance of a Focus.  But a typical TIE without taking Focus or evasion is going to average 1 evasion so hitting them in a straight roll off is going to be frustrating.  But with the extra attack die, and if they get to focus, then it becomes the same odds as an X-Wing scoring a hit on a TIE.

Now if you can get close range and an extra attack die through special abilities, then you're in business!

Maneuvering to get in close and/or to utilize special abilities is going to be the core to any Imp vs. Imp Strategy.

-DavicusPrime



#3 Hrathen

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Posted 07 September 2012 - 04:56 PM

 Very cool probability charts.

I didn't realize that in the TIE shooting at X-wing (2 attack dice vs 2 defense dice) the TIE has a slightly less chance than an X-Wing shooting at the TIE (3 attack dice and 3 defense dice)


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#4 GunslingerSix

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Posted 07 September 2012 - 06:10 PM

I think it's just me, but breaking down the math takes something out of it for me.  Removes the suspension of disbelief a bit maybe.



#5 DavicusPrime

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Posted 07 September 2012 - 06:38 PM

Like every other game I play, the math is nice to know but does nothing to help my performance.  As I've mentioned elsewhere, my dice hate me, and do improbable things that usually do not work out in my favor. 

What I'm realizing is that maneuvering is going to be key to this game.  All the probability and stats work won't save you if you can't get where you need to be to use it.  I figure it'll be a few games before I get the hang of getting where I want to be, when I want to be there.

Guessing where the other guy is going to be will be just as important.  I expect lots of chaotic and pointless movement my first couple games as I totally blow any attempts to guess my opponent's moves.

Another take away from all this is that the dice mechanic in this game is pretty complex.  There's the base roll, which is fairly straight forward.  But add in all the dice modifying actions and special abilities on both sides of the roll and its down right insane.  

-DavicusPrime 



#6 Aahzmandius_Karrde

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Posted 08 September 2012 - 03:45 PM

 Here's the link to the pdf: http://boardgamegeek...nces_to_Hit.pdf


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#7 dvang

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 09:43 AM

One thing that I found interesting …

It is better to use Evade when being shot by 2 dice or less. When the attacker has 3 or more dice, Focus is better. It makes sense, since with more dice Focus has a better chance of causing multiple evades. Still, I hadn't thought much about it until this.



#8 El_Tonio

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 07:29 PM

These numbers and the discussion is very helpful.  Thanks for calculating, and to everyone who commented (got some very good ideas here).


REBEL: 5 X-Wing  •  3 Y-Wing  •  4 A-Wing  •  2 YT-1300  •  4 B-Wing  •  1 HWK-290  •  5 Z-95 Headhunter  •  2 E-Wing

IMPERIAL: 8 TIE Fighter  •  2 TIE Advanced X1  •  5 TIE Interceptor  • 3 Firespray 31  •  6 TIE Bomber  •  2 Lambda Class Shuttle  •  2 TIE Phantom  •  2 TIE Defender

 

 


#9 KommissarK

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Posted 10 September 2012 - 08:53 AM

A few requests:

-Target lock is not included. Obviously that math starts to get really crazy, but it would be interesting to see.

-The obvious permutations with target lock (vs. evasion, vs. focus, with focus vs. evasion, with focus vs. focus)

-This is a bit of a big one, but for straight damage the %chance of multiple hits (example: chance of  2 hits on 3 attack, 3 evasion, attacker has focus, target has focus, etc.)



#10 Aahzmandius_Karrde

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Posted 10 September 2012 - 09:11 AM

KommissarK said:

A few requests:

-Target lock is not included. Obviously that math starts to get really crazy, but it would be interesting to see.

-The obvious permutations with target lock (vs. evasion, vs. focus, with focus vs. evasion, with focus vs. focus)

-This is a bit of a big one, but for straight damage the %chance of multiple hits (example: chance of  2 hits on 3 attack, 3 evasion, attacker has focus, target has focus, etc.)

Target lock will probably be the last thing.. right behind attacking Horton Salm.  Rerolls are a bith just in general, but with Horton there's no decision, with Target lock there's a decision to be made.  Do I just re-roll blanks?  Do I re-roll focus?  I have two hits do I re-roll one to get a critical?

I actually have the base work done on multiple hits, but not the permutations with focus/evade, etc.


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