We had a discussion this weekend at Celesticon (Bay Area, California) about early jumping.
The broader version is with Helo / Gaeta in play, should you be jumping early, risking 3 population, as much as possible.
On Helo's turn, he gets a reroll. Gaeta gets a reroll on any turn. And of course, there is Strategic Planning (+2 to roll) and Calculations.
If it's Helo's turn (or any turn when Gaeta playing), with no Strategic planning, 54% chance of success, 1.7 loss of population avg. (8.5 in 5 jumps).
If it's Helo's turn AND you have Gaeta playing, 58% chance, 1.3 Pop avg, (6 in five jumps).
And Strategic and it looks really good, 75%/.75/3.75 and both is 87.5%/.37/1.9.
I still think Helo or Gaeta alone, no Strategic Planning, is not a great risk if you are not in an otherwise tight spot (swarmed by ships, short on cards, etc).
Of course, the other risk factor is if a cylon is in play. Not so much for a Helo un-Strated roll, but if Gaeta is a Cylon and refuses a re-roll, if a promised Strategic never shows, etc. Of course, you DO jump either way. And with Gaeta, you are likely in Exodus and may not get to jump 3 as fast as you want!