# Attack / Defense Probabilities

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### #1 jcbbjjttt

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Posted 20 August 2012 - 12:08 PM

I've put together two spreadsheets containing the probabilities for attack and defense dice. These were generated by rolling the dice pools virtually 1 million times.

I have covered most of the possible dice pools but not all. The missing dice pools include those that a Disciple buffs with an additional yellow die, the knights ability to add a brown die, and the thieves ability to add a brown die. I think most others are accounted for.

These are both public Google Documents.

Attack Probabilities

Defense Probabilities

### #2 Hypherflaeion

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Posted 20 August 2012 - 12:53 PM

Wait, why would you virtually roll them 1 million times when you can just use absolute probabilities, such as 1/6th the chance for a miss?

### #3 jcbbjjttt

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Posted 20 August 2012 - 02:15 PM

Hypherflaeion said:

Wait, why would you virtually roll them 1 million times when you can just use absolute probabilities, such as 1/6th the chance for a miss?

That is fine for calculating the odds of a miss. But, what about the other 72 possibilities for rolling 2 Red and a Blue?

### #4 Triu

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Posted 20 August 2012 - 06:44 PM

jcbbjjttt said:

Hypherflaeion said:

Wait, why would you virtually roll them 1 million times when you can just use absolute probabilities, such as 1/6th the chance for a miss?

That is fine for calculating the odds of a miss. But, what about the other 72 possibilities for rolling 2 Red and a Blue?

There are ways to calculate that via formula, but it's easy to make mistakes.  Computers make the empirical method pretty painless.  This reminds me of the "dartboard" method of deriving the value of pi.  Enough iterations produces a fairly accurate value.

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