Yes that all sounds right.
So it would seem the first cycle of adventure packs will be our first chance to actually take over the roles from a significant event from the actual lore.
The hunt for Gollum and his imprisonment with the elfs in Mirkwood. Interestingly how close does this happen to Frodo's 50th birthday and him setting off from Bag End? I assumed it was pretty close as Legolas is at Rivendel to let Elrond know he's escaped.
I assume this means that the expansions won't be moving forward in time from one to the other through the 17 year period.
Also the Rules say that the deluxe expansions will introduce new areas, and the adventure pack that follows I assume will also be based in those regions. So I guess we could be seeing events that "actually" happened concurrently in later sets.