Okay, so again unmodified defense. We're discussing the probability of the stealth preventing damage. I'm looking at it by hits rolled instead of 3 F attack or whatever.

If your opponent rolls 1 hit, 1 agi w/ stealth has a 23% chance of the stealth preventing damage, 2 agi = 15%, 3 agi = 9.1%, 4 agi = 5.7%, 5 agi = 3.5%.

If he rolls 2 hits, 1 agi = 37%, 2 agi = 32%, 3 agi = 25%, 4 agi = 19%, 5 agi = 14%

If he rolls 3 hits, 1 agi = 37%, 2 agi = 37%, 3 agi = 35%, 4 agi = 32%, 5 agi = 27%

To be as effective as a hull, it needs to cancel a full hit of damage. So, now we need to calculate the probability of keeping the stealth. Once again, I'm going to take a look at if you opponent rolls 1, 2, or 3 hits.

1 hit vs: 1 agi = 61%, 2 agi = 76%, 3 agi = 85%, 4 agi = 90%, 5 agi = 94%

2 hits vs: 1 agi = 14%, 2 agi = 32%, 3 agi = 48%, 4 agi = 2%, 5 agi = 73%

3 hits vs: 1 agi = 0%, 2 agi = 5.2%, 3 agi = 15%, 4 agi = 28%, 5 agi = 40%

So we can use these two percentages (and probabilities of getting them if you want) to determine what stealth is worth. For now lets focus on the opponent rolling 2 hits. Automatically, it is worth .375 hull to the 1 agi (from table 1), but then there's a 14% chance that it'll help out on the next attack .375, so after two attacks, the stealth is worth .375 + .14 * .375, after a 3rd = .375 + .14 * .375 + .14^2 * .375, etc.

So, after they all converge, the damage prevented from the stealth is:

1 agi = .435, 2 agi = .471, 3 agi = .494, 4 agi = .51, 5 agi = .521

As you can see, none of these results actually come close to 1 damage prevented. But the one thing I'll say, is that this is all based on no focus. Lets take a look at what happens when we add focus to the equation. For simplicity's sake, I'm going to assume that you have infinite focus tokens to spend, which is obviously not true, but it'll do for now. So now the results are:

1 agi = 1.02, 2 agi = 1.20, 3 agi = 1.30, 4 agi = 1.37, 5 agi = 1.36* (still not 100% converged)

For comparision, if the attacker gets 3 hits, the results are:

1 agi = .625, 2 agi = .827, 3 agi = .981, 4 agi = 1.09, 5 agi = 1.17

So, what do these numbers mean? They mean that the stealth device is indeed better on higher agility ships than low agility ships, but even on the low agi, if they can manage a focus, then they can get a good return from it. However, there will be an averaging between these two numbers, since infinite focus tokens is not reasonable, and the stealth is not worth anywhere near the 3 points if you don't have a focus, though with a focus, it's right in line with the shield pricing on high agility ships, and in line with the hull pricing on low agility ships.

So, best way to kill a stealthed ship? Deny it its action.

Edit: Math error

**Edited by Khyros, 12 February 2014 - 10:20 AM.**