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Serious Speculation on Release Dates


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#1 jedi moose

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 10:35 AM

Lets have a serious discussion of when we think all of the anticipated ships/waves will drop. Serious meaning not "2015" unless that is what you really think. And support your statements by actual information or FFG's actual history of releases.

 

Aces says that it is on the boat. So I don't see how it could take a step back from that to  "in development" or "at the printer". So aces will be in our hands in a few weeks

 

Huge ships and Wave 4 are expected Q2. Is May 4th too soon to be realistic? Do you think both Wave4/Huge ships will drop at the same time? Are their any major events before Gencon (August) that would be a good release date?

 

If i remember correctly Wave 3 was announced at May 4th event and released in September. 4 months. Aces was announced In september and will arrive in February (possibly early March). 5 months. Huge ships are looking like they wil be at least 8-10 months, but they may be special circumstances as they are a whole new style of play and ship.

 

So what do you think is a realistic expectation for all of this good stuff?



#2 Sithborg

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 10:38 AM

Yeah, the Huge ships were announced unusually early for FFG. But I think mid-May for the Huge ships, and early June for Wave 4 seems good, if optimistic.



#3 Johdo

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 10:42 AM

i am guessing Aces either in March or April, large ships in June or July, with Wave 4 pre-purchase at Gencon with a public release of October.

 

If anything in there was to change, it would be large ships being available at GenCon so they can run "cinematic" events at the convention.  I would also guess Midwest regionals will be at GenCon as well, so that could be a deciding factor.


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#4 dvor

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 10:42 AM

Something is likely to be released at Gen Con. Which means middle of August. Probably wave 4.


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#5 Khyros

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 10:46 AM

Well, for once, I'm inclined to think that FFG indeed thinks that Wave will be released in Q2.  As it stands, this was a poor time for them to release the info on it as there's so much already going on.  

 

Store champs are going on until March.  That alone is enough to keep players excited for the game.  Then you have Regionals coming up in May, which again, is enough to keep players interested, though I could see some interest fading seeing as how few there are.

 

But with imp aces coming out in a few weeks, there'll be the high of "new stuff!" going on (and has been anticipated for awhile now).  As if that's not enough, they just released info on the transport, and have at least one more info release regarding the tantive IV.

 

 

So, the point being that they already have plenty of content and news to keep the player base excited and playing the game.  If they were expecting Gencon+ release, I would think that they would be better off holding off on the info until may-june time frame, when the Regionals are wrapping up (or those that aren't going are starting to fade out), bringing everyone back into the game.  

 

 

Therefore, I believe that they truly mean Q2 2014.  Though I believe it will probably be June, since I don't think they will launch W4 right before regionals.  That, or It'll be an April release, giving people a month to play with W4 before regionals.  But my best guess would be June.


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#6 jedi moose

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 10:52 AM

Well, for once, I'm inclined to think that FFG indeed thinks that Wave will be released in Q2.  As it stands, this was a poor time for them to release the info on it as there's so much already going on.  

 

Store champs are going on until March.  That alone is enough to keep players excited for the game.  Then you have Regionals coming up in May, which again, is enough to keep players interested, though I could see some interest fading seeing as how few there are.

 

But with imp aces coming out in a few weeks, there'll be the high of "new stuff!" going on (and has been anticipated for awhile now).  As if that's not enough, they just released info on the transport, and have at least one more info release regarding the tantive IV.

 

 

So, the point being that they already have plenty of content and news to keep the player base excited and playing the game.  If they were expecting Gencon+ release, I would think that they would be better off holding off on the info until may-june time frame, when the Regionals are wrapping up (or those that aren't going are starting to fade out), bringing everyone back into the game.  

 

 

Therefore, I believe that they truly mean Q2 2014.  Though I believe it will probably be June, since I don't think they will launch W4 right before regionals.  That, or It'll be an April release, giving people a month to play with W4 before regionals.  But my best guess would be June.

See this is exactly what i was thinking (and starting to type). Why would they release info about wave 4 on a random Friday in february if they really didn't think they would see stores until August? That's a good way to tick off the community. And it certainly isn't because we don't have enugh to look forward too. So I'm really optimistic that wave 4 will indeed be Q2, unless there is a horrible setback. Now what exactly is FFG's "Q2"? Have we ever figured out a diffinitive answer to that question?



#7 jedi moose

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 10:57 AM

I'm actually thinking that Huge ships will be May 4th. What better way or place to entice new players to the game then at an event where Star Wars fanboys will be out in force? They will see those beautiful huge ships and will have no choice but to buy them. Its in their blood! I think FFG would be foolish not to jump on that opportunity. And I don't think FFG is foolish



#8 Sithborg

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 11:00 AM

I'm pretty certain that the release Quarters are just standard (Q1 is Jan-Mar, Q2 is April-June, Q3 is July-Sep, and Q4 is Oct-Dec). What their fiscal calendar is, is another story.

 

Worst case scenario, I see the Huge ships slip to June, and Wave 4 in July. But, I can see at least some Huge ships flown in for their Star Wars Weekend.



#9 SableGryphon

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 11:02 AM

I think I should point out something. The announcement pictures included everything that would be included with the expansions, from cards to tokens to production quality miniatures. This indicates that they are far along with the development process. They've already worked out the stats, playtested, done package/token sheet/model design, gotten proofs back, made corrections, and a dozen other important steps. At most they have a test run to make (low likelihood of modifications) before actually starting the manufacturing (which may well already be underway). This is counter to the huge ships or Imperial Aces, where they showed us information far earlier in this process leading to a much longer lead time.

 

As such, I expect we will see these late Q2. There are a lot of steps remaining, from production to shipment to distribution, but those are reasonable steps to expect completion of by then.


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#10 Khyros

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 11:13 AM

If they were to be here for April, the start of Q2, they would basically have to be shipping in the next two weeks or so.  And since they're not at the printer yet, figure at least another month for production.  So May would be the earliest I could foresee them existing, but that would be a really tight timeline.  And would drop meta changing wave 4 right in the middle of regionals.  And for the reasons I mentioned above, they wouldn't announce it this early if they weren't confident in their shipping date.  As such, sometime in June so be almost a guarantee.  


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#11 Sithborg

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 11:19 AM

First, the Aces pack was announced with all the content shown, just like Wave 4 was. So, some issue happened to cause such a big delay.

 

And FFG releases meta altering content in the middle of the tournament season all the time. Ask any LCG player. They do tend to restrict what packs are legal though for the season, since availability can change from region to region. And with only 16 US Regionals, it won't be necessarily a big deal to not have Wave 4 be legal.

 

As for their confidence, that has little to do with it. They tend to announce things with a 3 month window for release. They don't always hit that window though.



#12 Swedge

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 11:20 AM

Aug 14th for the small ships.....  July 15th for transport....   Oct 15 for CR-90  


Edited by Swedge, 10 February 2014 - 11:22 AM.

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#13 Danthrax

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 11:22 AM

I think FFG tried to set up a calendar of releases three months apart:

 

September 2013: Wave 3

 

December 2013: Imperial Aces

 

March 2014: Rebel huge ships

 

June 2014: Wave 4

 

 

It was a good plan, but it's FFG, so of course everything got delayed or will get delayed. I think the release calendar will pan out like this:

 

First week of March: Imperial Aces

 

May: Rebel huge ships

 

Mid-July: Wave 4

 

November: Something unannounced, like Imperial huge ships, which would be planned for September but pushed back

 

March 2015: Wave 5, which would be planned for December 2014 but pushed back



#14 Sithborg

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 11:44 AM

I'm pretty certain something will be announced during the Star Wars Weekend. Whether that is Imperial capital ships, a Rebel Aces pack, or Wave 5.

 

While the Aces delay was bad, I remain optimistic due to how well Wave 3 was released. It didn't seem to be that delayed.



#15 cubby09

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 11:50 AM

I think I should point out something. The announcement pictures included everything that would be included with the expansions, from cards to tokens to production quality miniatures. This indicates that they are far along with the development process. They've already worked out the stats, playtested, done package/token sheet/model design, gotten proofs back, made corrections, and a dozen other important steps. At most they have a test run to make (low likelihood of modifications) before actually starting the manufacturing (which may well already be underway). This is counter to the huge ships or Imperial Aces, where they showed us information far earlier in this process leading to a much longer lead time.

 

As such, I expect we will see these late Q2. There are a lot of steps remaining, from production to shipment to distribution, but those are reasonable steps to expect completion of by then.

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#16 Danthrax

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 11:56 AM

I'm pretty certain something will be announced during the Star Wars Weekend. Whether that is Imperial capital ships, a Rebel Aces pack, or Wave 5.

 

While the Aces delay was bad, I remain optimistic due to how well Wave 3 was released. It didn't seem to be that delayed.

 

Surprisingly, Wave 3 didn't seem to be delayed at all. On May 4, FFG announced it would be released in the third quarter of 2013, which would be July through September. It ended up being released mid-September, with a soft launch at GenCon in mid-August.

 

It had been a long time since Wave 2 was released in late February, though, so FFG had a lot of time to get its ducks in a row.


Edited by Danthrax, 10 February 2014 - 11:56 AM.


#17 Khyros

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 12:12 PM

Amazon cannot be trusted for pre-order dates.  If you rely on Amazon for these, you will be disappointed.  


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#18 Osoroshii

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 12:32 PM

I would put the following dates on these ships

 

Aces: First week of March

Rebel Transport and Tantive IV: June

wave 4: Soft Release At GenCon full release a week after, Third week of August



#19 SheepDog

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 12:41 PM

When I saw the wave 4 announcement I totally could not believe it.  Really, I saw some wave 4 thread and was like “Oh well might as well see what the totally un-informed speculation is” and then got the wave 4 info.

 

After cleaning whiskey off my monitor/keyboard and changing my underwear I wondered why this was being released now.  I’m going to be optimistic and assume the wave 4 announcement timeline is legit.

 

My timeline:

 

  • Aces = In stores early March
  • Transport = June
  • Wave 4 = May
  • CR-90 = Gencon
  • Rebel Aces Announcement = May
  • Empire Big Ships Announcement = Gencon
  • Wave 5 = Either an All Bounty Hunter (Smuggler) Wave or New Faction introduced (Black Sun)

 

My reasoning:

 

  1. This game is popular.  It sells.  Both FFG and their manufacturer have had sufficient time to re-align their product development and manufacturing to get on the ball.  I would have to think that along with the smiles of developing a successful game there were frowns at the company regarding “money left on the table” by not being able to supply sufficient product.  Not big frowns, but “we can do better” frowns none the less.
  2. The increase in manufacturing capacity has to happen anyway.  With each additional wave you need to have additional capacity to support re-runs of previous waves.
  3. I believe FFG has the small ships product down pat now.  Releasing an entire wave of small ships quicker than we imagined is consistent with this.
  4. I think the production of the huge ships is tougher.  I also believe FFG is going to take its damn time making sure the gameplay testing is complete.  The introduction of the new game play and huge ships IMHO represents more risk than the wave 4 release.
  5. Going forward I think rebel aces will probably be pretty soon.  I believe Rebels aces will be an A-wing and a Y-wing.  Both ships could use a little love.
  6. I have no idea what they are going to do with the Tie Advanced.  I personally like the ship, but I think wave 4 pretty much wipes out any niche it still has. I will always bust it out to play Vader (and so will many others) from time to time but its lagging.
  7. Empire big ships are a definite.  Probably will have models at Gencon.  Expect to see those quicker than the rebel ones.  It always tougher the first time.
  8. Rebel vs. Empire ship pickings are getting pretty slim.  Maybe I’m wrong on that, but its seems pretty played out.  Also, I think we will find that with the release of Wave 4 both factions are pretty equal.  The only glaring differences are 360 turret and bombs.  Rear firing and droids could be included in that list as well I guess.
  9. Either an all bounty/smuggler wave (2 rebel, 2 empire) or a new faction will be released in wave 5.  If a new faction is introduced I would guess they would have all 4 ships be of that new faction.

 

I thought about FFG doing another core set (2 z-95 and one TIE Defender).  What do you guys think?  Would you be interested?  I think I would be.        


Edited by SheepDog, 10 February 2014 - 12:44 PM.


#20 dvor

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 12:47 PM

I thought about FFG doing another core set (2 z-95 and one TIE Defender).  What do you guys think?  Would you be interested?  I think I would be.        

I would be interested but mainly to get ships cheaper. However, I do not think that will happen. At least not with that combination of ships. Two Z-95 against one defender might not be balanced.


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