# Improving your attack, let's look at some numbers (WARNING THERE WILL BE MATH)

33 replies to this topic

### #21 Endgame124

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Posted 21 January 2014 - 11:49 AM

4- your elite pilot upgrade. (This means that just about the only pilot who can focus and expose in the whole game is Vader)

This is true.. unless:

You can also increase the effectiveness of Expose if:

3) You're running Han w/ Luke

I think I'm forgetting some, but you get the idea

### #22 pbpancho

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Posted 21 January 2014 - 11:58 AM

The reason I like to take Target Lock when I have a good idea what my target will be, is that if I DON'T spend it, I'm set up for a TL/Focused shot on the next turn.  Especially since I've been flying B and Y-Wings, a focus on defense isn't going to be that helpful anyways.  On a 3 Agility ship, it'd be a different story.

### #23 MajorJuggler

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Posted 21 January 2014 - 12:02 PM

The x1 against a naked 3 agility roll will do .35 damage.  Then the following turn, lets assume it is in range 1 of the X wing, with a F+TL - it will likely do 1.95 damage for a total of 2.3 damage.  If you used the TL on the first turn, you'd do .61 damage.  On the second turn, again, assume range 1, you take a F or TL (ignoring the effects of crits atm) and you'd do 1.47 damage.  The total expected damage is 2.08.  In this case, you are better off holding onto the TL the first turn.

However, if you were only at R2 on the second turn, the expected damage is .35 + 1.14 = 1.49 (saving the TL) vs. .61 + .85 = 1.46 (using the TL).  As you can see, the outcome is practically the same.  If the range is not changing (say you are chasing a ship) you will do more damage using the TL and then the F on the second turn.

Your numbers are off slightly for the range 1 attacks, but not enough to really change the conclusion.

3 dice + F + TL vs 3 agility (no focus) = 2.0642 average damage

3 dice + F         vs 3 agility (no focus) = 1.5315 average damage

For reference again range 2 numbers are:

2 dice + TL +F vs 2 agility (no focus) = 1.1444 average damage

2 dice + TL      vs 2 agility (no focus) = 0.8496 average damage

2 dice              vs 2 agility (no focus) = 0.5078 average damage

For reference again range 3:

2 dice + TL vs 3 agility (no focus) = 0.6134 average damage

2 dice         vs 3 agility (no focus) = 0.3504 average damage

Corrected numbers:

Saving TL at range 3, spending F+TL at range 1: 0.354 + 2.064 = 2.418

vs

Spending TL/focus at range 3 and F at range 1: 0.6134 + 1.531 = 2.145

Or only getting into range 2:

Saving TL at range 3, spending F+TL at range 2: 0.354 + 1.144 = 1.498

vs

Spending TL/focus at range 3 and F at range 2: 0.6134 + 0.8496 = 1.463

Of course, if you are also getting shot at, then focus on turn 1 probably wins outright because you can use it for defense. That math becomes more complicated.

### #24 Khyros

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Posted 21 January 2014 - 12:05 PM

You're using the wrong agility.  R1 the X wing only has 2 agility.

Edit:  I can't figure out where your numbers are coming from - they don't agree with mine for 3 agility dice either.  There's no reason for my formula to be wrong with 3 attack dice but work just fine with 2 attack dice - are you sure your numbers aren't slightly off?

Edit 2:  Nope... I found the error in mine.  Forgot to add the rolling 3 hits and 2 evades... don't know why I missed it on those cells when I didn't on anything else.

Edited by Khyros, 21 January 2014 - 12:10 PM.

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### #25 bobbywhiskey

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Posted 21 January 2014 - 12:33 PM

When it comes to the whole expose topic, basically don't think of using it under any circumstance EVEN IF IT WAS 0 COST AND DIDNT COST A GREEN DIE if you can't at least combo a focus or tl with it, but even then, in a situation like vader/ rebel action passing squads it still doesnt give you more damage in some situations.

Basically 3 dice (or more dice) with tl + focus is better than expose (so essentially 4 dice let's say ) with TL or Focus. So a xwing with expose with dutch around or something is still not worth it (again i'm not even counting the point cost or die, just how many hits your red dice will average). However, 2 dice with TL + focus is NOT as good as 3 dice with one or the other, so yes vader is probably the only ship to run this on, but if he happens to land within range 1 of someone, you would be better served with a tl + focus that turn. But at least it's marginally ok on him. Now where it would really shine would be if you could get all 3 benefits in a rebel squad passing out freebies or something, but that's alot of points that would start to fall apart after one of the ships died.

Now all that being said it does help you slightly when you need to "get over" a 5 green dice roll or something, but I'm not really factoring that in since there are so many other things with this card that are drawbacks as well. With all of the hurdles you must clear to make this card make sense (which i'm not saying is impossible, just pricey), it really should've cost like 2 points.

### #26 Khyros

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Posted 21 January 2014 - 12:44 PM

Yeah, I messed around with a squad awhile back trying to get it to work... And it really didn't work out.  I think it was something along the lines of:

Ibby w/ Expose + FCS

Dutch w/ Ion + APT

100pts total

This way Jan could hand Ibby a Focus, Ibby could Expose, Dutch can hand out a TL.  And then Jan can hand out an additional attack die.  And Ibby could maintain a TL with FCS for future attacks, allowing Jan to keep her action.  And the APT can be modified with Jan to make it really deadly.  But the problem is as soon as any one ship is killed, this list is useless.  If it's Ibby, then you're left with two ion turrets.  If it's Jan / Dutch, Expose becomes useless, and you have a gimped Ibby (who could have had PTL + AdSns for the same points)

You could sub Jan for Garven for a bit more longetivity to the list.  And then you have 14 points left to buff everyone else... Likely AdvSns, R2D2, and either HLC or APT.  But again, the list has one specific purpose, that is rather easy to disrupt.

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### #27 MajorJuggler

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Posted 21 January 2014 - 12:49 PM

You're using the wrong agility.  R1 the X wing only has 2 agility.

Edit:  I can't figure out where your numbers are coming from - they don't agree with mine for 3 agility dice either.  There's no reason for my formula to be wrong with 3 attack dice but work just fine with 2 attack dice - are you sure your numbers aren't slightly off?

Edit 2:  Nope... I found the error in mine.  Forgot to add the rolling 3 hits and 2 evades... don't know why I missed it on those cells when I didn't on anything else.

This one reason why I like using scripts instead of Excel. Carefully program it once, and then it's pretty idiot proof later when calling the function. I'm sure I would make a bunch of mistakes if I had to manually calculate stuff every time in Excel. You know you can use the VB Editor (ALT+F11) to write custom macros. Very handy. I use Matlab so I can wrap a ton of other code around it (it scales WAY better than Excel once you start talking about more complicated scenarios to analyze), but you can still do scripts in Excel.

Edited by MajorJuggler, 21 January 2014 - 12:49 PM.

### #28 Khyros

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Posted 21 January 2014 - 12:53 PM

Yeah... I should have done all of it in Matlab.  But it started so simple... and has just exploded into so much more than the initial scope of the project, and I hate to rewrite it all in Matlab.  One of these days I should bite the bullet and do that though.  I have all the formula's written out, and then I can continue to expand (ordnance is next) properly.  *sigh*  Lets get started...

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### #29 mege

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Posted 21 January 2014 - 01:13 PM

I see lots of people comparing marksmanship to focus (for obvious reasons), but shouldn't it really be compared to TL because of its pure offensive nature?

(and really a crit is ~1.2 damage with 7/33 ~1/5)

(edit: counting the two minor explosions as 1.375 damage, then each crit is effectively 1.2348 damage, close enough)

Edited by mege, 21 January 2014 - 01:20 PM.

### #30 MajorJuggler

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Posted 21 January 2014 - 01:30 PM

Yeah... I should have done all of it in Matlab.  But it started so simple... and has just exploded into so much more than the initial scope of the project, and I hate to rewrite it all in Matlab.  One of these days I should bite the bullet and do that though.  I have all the formula's written out, and then I can continue to expand (ordnance is next) properly.  *sigh*  Lets get started...

Well, you certainly don't have to use Matlab specifically. Any programming language will do. I just happen to use Matlab for other things, and already have a license. It's also handy for making graphs, better than Excel IMO.

I would suggest making some more generalized functions, so all you have to do is change the input vectors for ordinance. For example I have a "HitCalculator" function that has the following inputs: AttackDice, TargetLock, FocusTokens, FreeBlankToHit, FreeBlankToEye, FreeEyeToHit, FreeRerolls, FreeHits, and it returns the exact probability distribution for 0:AttackDice number of hits. This set of inputs can handle any of the attack effects currently in-game.

### #31 Khyros

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Posted 21 January 2014 - 02:15 PM

Yeah... I should have done all of it in Matlab.  But it started so simple... and has just exploded into so much more than the initial scope of the project, and I hate to rewrite it all in Matlab.  One of these days I should bite the bullet and do that though.  I have all the formula's written out, and then I can continue to expand (ordnance is next) properly.  *sigh*  Lets get started...

Well, you certainly don't have to use Matlab specifically. Any programming language will do. I just happen to use Matlab for other things, and already have a license. It's also handy for making graphs, better than Excel IMO.

I would suggest making some more generalized functions, so all you have to do is change the input vectors for ordinance. For example I have a "HitCalculator" function that has the following inputs: AttackDice, TargetLock, FocusTokens, FreeBlankToHit, FreeBlankToEye, FreeEyeToHit, FreeRerolls, FreeHits, and it returns the exact probability distribution for 0:AttackDice number of hits. This set of inputs can handle any of the attack effects currently in-game.

That's a much simpler way of doing it.  It'll sure make programming the blank->hit and howlrunner/jonus rerolls much easier.  It was a pain in the \$*#@# to do Luke's evade.  And I can check the math against the Luke math I already did.  Cool.  Thanks for that suggestion.  I too already have a matrawb license and experience with it, so if i'm going to write code, its going to be in there.  It bugs me that does not equal is ~= in that instead of !=... and it bugs me even more that it tells you that when you put in !=... but alas, that's a small complaint against a wonderfully powerful software.

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### #32 Hrathen

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Posted 21 January 2014 - 05:03 PM

I see lots of people comparing marksmanship to focus (for obvious reasons), but shouldn't it really be compared to TL because of its pure offensive nature?

(and really a crit is ~1.2 damage with 7/33 ~1/5)

(edit: counting the two minor explosions as 1.375 damage, then each crit is effectively 1.2348 damage, close enough)

The reason why I compared it to focus is becasue Focus and TL give the same expected boost if used alone. Also it works more like a focus than a Target Lock. Yes it is purely offensive, but you can't keep it from turn to turn and you can use it on anyone you shoot at. Those are big differences between it and TL.
Another reason why I compare it to Focus, is because if for some reason you get two actions (or tokens at least) you want to trade the Focus for a Marksmanship instead of a TL for a Marksmanship because having marksmanship and focus together doesn't help much, while TL + Marksmanship does help a lot.

The statement that Focus can be used both offensively and deffensively, though true, can be a little misleading. If you have at least three attack dice and high pilot skill then two things are likely to happen. 1 you will likely shoot first (so your first oppertunity to use focus will be on attack) and you will probably roll some eyeballs on your attack. You only have a 27/64 chance of not rolling any eyeballs. Sure it happens and if it does you haven't wasted your focus, which is one great thing about focus.

I am not saying that marksmanship is awesome, or even good. I am just saying that it might not be as bad as I thought it was before I did these calcualtions. (Yes, I thought it was the second worst upgrade, after expose)
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### #33 StevenO

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Posted 21 January 2014 - 05:22 PM

I see lots of people comparing marksmanship to focus (for obvious reasons), but shouldn't it really be compared to TL because of its pure offensive nature?

I think Hrathen just made the points.  The key ones are:

1.  Using TL forces you into specifying who you are attack.  Marksmanship and Focus can be use on anyone you could attack.

2.  TL can be held from round to round if not use.  Marksmanship is used or it's not.  In most cases Focus is lost at the end of the turn.

3.  Marksmanship + Focus is pretty much worthless as an attack booster but Marksmanship + TL IS a valid attack boost.

Focus may have some defense value but if you want it for offense then it is just like Marksmanship (at least for one attack) except that if you do NOT need it you can use it for defense..

### #34 MajorJuggler

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Posted 21 January 2014 - 05:47 PM

Yeah... I should have done all of it in Matlab.  But it started so simple... and has just exploded into so much more than the initial scope of the project, and I hate to rewrite it all in Matlab.  One of these days I should bite the bullet and do that though.  I have all the formula's written out, and then I can continue to expand (ordnance is next) properly.  *sigh*  Lets get started...

Well, you certainly don't have to use Matlab specifically. Any programming language will do. I just happen to use Matlab for other things, and already have a license. It's also handy for making graphs, better than Excel IMO.

I would suggest making some more generalized functions, so all you have to do is change the input vectors for ordinance. For example I have a "HitCalculator" function that has the following inputs: AttackDice, TargetLock, FocusTokens, FreeBlankToHit, FreeBlankToEye, FreeEyeToHit, FreeRerolls, FreeHits, and it returns the exact probability distribution for 0:AttackDice number of hits. This set of inputs can handle any of the attack effects currently in-game.

That's a much simpler way of doing it.  It'll sure make programming the blank->hit and howlrunner/jonus rerolls much easier.  It was a pain in the \$*#@# to do Luke's evade.  And I can check the math against the Luke math I already did.  Cool.  Thanks for that suggestion.  I too already have a matrawb license and experience with it, so if i'm going to write code, its going to be in there.  It bugs me that does not equal is ~= in that instead of !=... and it bugs me even more that it tells you that when you put in !=... but alas, that's a small complaint against a wonderfully powerful software.

I actually posted my Matlab code (individual functions anyway) on these forums somewhere recently, but now I have no idea where it is. Feel free to dig through my post history and dig it up.

Edit: found it on page 7 of the Imperial Aces Update thread.

http://community.fan...s-update/page-7

Edited by MajorJuggler, 21 January 2014 - 05:51 PM.

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