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Making use of Expose


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#61 Ravncat

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 07:40 AM

I've found a focus or target lock ontop of expose is generally enough to be good - look at the probability of Focus + 4 dice, vs focus and TL + 3 dice.  Kyle, Dutch, Garven - all work with expose.   The minus 1 die on defense is tough - but not so bad if you're not getting shot much - which makes it great on a falcon - or an interceptor with engine.

Try Expose on a saber squadron pilot - flying with someone that has squad leader.... 



#62 TheRealStarkiller

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 07:52 AM

Thats what I posted before.

Lets post it again:

 

Colonel Jendon
ST-321
 
Saber Squadron Pilot #1
Expose
 
Saber Squadron Pilot #2
Expose
 
Howlrunner
SL

  • Ravncat likes this

                 Sir, rebel transports sighted \                              / Affirmative.                                                           

   (-o-)  (-o-)    (-o-o-)     (-o-o-)     (-o-o-)     (-o-o-)    (-o-)  (-o-) 

 Excellent! Gamma wing, prepare for torpedo run. We'll provide cover.

     |-o-|   |-o-|   |-o-|   |-o-|   (<o>)   |-o-|   |-o-|   |-o-|   |-o-|   


#63 CrookedWookie

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 11:21 AM

I am heartily in favor of this squad.  As a Rebel player, any time an Interceptor wants to willingly take a hit to his ability to evade my shots, I am absolutely down for that.   :D



#64 TheRealStarkiller

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 11:53 AM

Your avatar is just a disguise?

I wouldn't dare to try this list ... unless you like the challenge.

As an imperial its even more difficult to get a use of Expose unless your pilot is named Vader

With the firesprays maybe? Boba? Kath? .... at least it comes with the sprays ...!


                 Sir, rebel transports sighted \                              / Affirmative.                                                           

   (-o-)  (-o-)    (-o-o-)     (-o-o-)     (-o-o-)     (-o-o-)    (-o-)  (-o-) 

 Excellent! Gamma wing, prepare for torpedo run. We'll provide cover.

     |-o-|   |-o-|   |-o-|   |-o-|   (<o>)   |-o-|   |-o-|   |-o-|   |-o-|   


#65 Rakky Wistol

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 01:26 PM

Isnt expose on a firespray at rng 3 just a cheaper HCL? You get 4 dice and 2 defense dice. Obviously not quite the same as you lose that extra action and the only 2 firesprays a that can get it are high enough PS that squad leader will be rough.

Again, is it possible and a little useful? Sure. Is PTL better? Almost always. When is it to better? When wedge is shooting at your 1 agility ship because 0 dice is zero dice (and for non bwing/falcons better offense if you survive) Oh wait, with PTL I can still barrel roll out 1 range category to down his dice or up mine AND take an evade token. PTL is just more useful more of the time regardless of what the rest of your flight is doing.

If PTL was 4pts and expose was 3pts most would still take PTL over expose.

Edited by Rakky Wistol, 07 December 2013 - 01:31 PM.


#66 TheRealStarkiller

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 01:49 PM

DANG! Then Expose is just to make beginners lose. Those evil designers ...


Edited by TheRealStarkiller, 07 December 2013 - 01:49 PM.

                 Sir, rebel transports sighted \                              / Affirmative.                                                           

   (-o-)  (-o-)    (-o-o-)     (-o-o-)     (-o-o-)     (-o-o-)    (-o-)  (-o-) 

 Excellent! Gamma wing, prepare for torpedo run. We'll provide cover.

     |-o-|   |-o-|   |-o-|   |-o-|   (<o>)   |-o-|   |-o-|   |-o-|   |-o-|   


#67 rym

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 05:27 PM

...Oh! What about Darth Vader? He has two actions per turn and has low base attack. I'm not sure it's worth the 4 points still, but that's the one instance I can see it working.

My son ran Vader with Expose (and Engine Upgrade) to great effectiveness against me, in conjunction with Soontir Fel. I think it helped that he had higher PS values than I did, so Vader usually shot first and within Range 1. 4 attack dice is nothing to snuff at when your opponent can consistently outmanuever you (with Boost) and outshoot you (with Expose).

 

I think in this case, Expose is worth the points. My two cents.



#68 basilisk 51

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 01:47 AM

I consider Expose to basically be a reuseable torpedo that can go on people without ordanance slots.  I always use it with a TL and it does make it very situational but then again most of the cards in the game are situational.  It really has to be on something with at least 3 attack and preferably at least 2 agility.  It costing an action is similiar to losing your TL to shoot that missile but now you can keep the TL if you have it.  Last list i ran was a 4 ship build and i gave it to wedge because that minus 1 agility to them and now your plus 1 attack is really nice.  I also usually only used it when it was a range 2 or greater standoff so they didnt hit back as hard as at range 1.  Either way i like expose but you dont use it every turn.  You might use it 4 or 5 times in a single games which is more than a one use torpedo.



#69 Quendil

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 08:49 AM

What about this situation

A tiefigher has locaed itself behind the enemie and is safe on range 2. (not an unusual scenario)

 

It gets 2 dice for attack

Average is 1 hit but might get 2

with focus its 1,5 hits but might get 2

with expose its also 1,5 hits but might get _3_

 

So...in this scenario expose is better than focus.

In this scenario, expose also improves the chance of geting criticals (also better tha focus)


Cum gladio evaginato!!


#70 Khyros

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 09:29 AM

That's basically why I want to fool around with it.  Yes, the math of average damage says that it's not very good.  But math only tells half the story.  It is hard to quantify the effect of getting that extra hit rolled, even though it may only happen 1/8 times.  More over, rolling that 3rd hit means quite a bit more damage.  Against an X wing, it's a garenteed hit, where as the two hits you rolled with a focus is more likely to do no damage at all.  This is the scenario that makes expose seem like it could be much better in play than in math.


The fleet:  

Spoiler

#71 Quendil

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 09:49 AM

Lower dexterity must not be a bad thing in all situations.

You can use this this to make your ship look tempting as a target.

-Sure, you might take som damage and even get the ship killed, but it might be better than having the enemies shoot at another ship.

 

the first situation that comes to my mind is if the other ship is damaged


Cum gladio evaginato!!


#72 TheRealStarkiller

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 03:31 PM

100 points

 

31 points
Darth Vader
Squad Leader
 
21 points
Mauler Mithel
Expose
 
18 points
Backstabber
Targeting Computer
 
16 points
Dark Curse
 
14 points
Black Squadron Pilot

                 Sir, rebel transports sighted \                              / Affirmative.                                                           

   (-o-)  (-o-)    (-o-o-)     (-o-o-)     (-o-o-)     (-o-o-)    (-o-)  (-o-) 

 Excellent! Gamma wing, prepare for torpedo run. We'll provide cover.

     |-o-|   |-o-|   |-o-|   |-o-|   (<o>)   |-o-|   |-o-|   |-o-|   |-o-|   


#73 Endgame124

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 04:06 PM

I intend on trying this the next time I can get a game in:

 

Vader, Concussion Missile, Expose

Howl Runner, Push the Limits

Black Squadron, Draw Their Fire

Black Squadron, Draw Their Fire

Academy Pilot



#74 Hrathen

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 04:25 PM

Isnt expose on a firespray at rng 3 just a cheaper HCL? You get 4 dice and 2 defense dice. Obviously not quite the same as you lose that extra action and the only 2 firesprays a that can get it are high enough PS that squad leader will be rough.
Again, is it possible and a little useful? Sure. Is PTL better? Almost always. When is it to better? When wedge is shooting at your 1 agility ship because 0 dice is zero dice (and for non bwing/falcons better offense if you survive) Oh wait, with PTL I can still barrel roll out 1 range category to down his dice or up mine AND take an evade token. PTL is just more useful more of the time regardless of what the rest of your flight is doing.
If PTL was 4pts and expose was 3pts most would still take PTL over expose.


4 points + an action every turn is more expensive than 7 points in my opinion. PTL cost 3 points, oh, and you can't take it and expose.

Trading an agility dice for an attack dice is pretty pricy, but I can see when you might want to. But trading an agility dice AND your action for an attack dice (pluss it costs 4 points) is not a good deal. I don't think I would take expose if it cost 1 point.

The problem is that one extra dice isn't much better than simply taking a target lock or focus.
Putting an end to this distructive conflict and bringing order to the galaxy.

#75 Two_Hands

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 09:20 PM


So, I've done the math countless times and Expose just doesn't seem to make the cut.  It's always better to Focus or TL than it is to Expose.  Thus the search for finding that scenario that would make expose useful began.

 

So, I tried doing the math too and I'm pretty sure your math is wrong :)

Here's the thing: it's better to focus to maximise your hits if you ignore the defence roll. If you include the defence roll the situation is a bit different. Here's a rough-and-dirty breakdown of the numbers for a TIE fighter shooting at a focused X-Wing (based on the actual number of hits which get through, if the X-wing burns its focus on defence):

If the TIE focused:

2 Points of Damage = 7.91%

1 PoD = 31.64%
no PoD = 60.45%

 

If the TIE exposed but didn't focus:

3 PoD = 1.76%

2 PoD = 11.13%

1 PoD = 27.73%
no PoD = 59.38%

 

So in this scenario it is better for the TIE to expose than focus- 12.89% chance of at least two damaging hits as opposed to 7.91%. The chance of scoring any damaging hits is about the same (at about 40%) but just slightly favouring expose. I haven't run the numbers for other ships yet (because I have mostly played Imperial TIE swarms, so it was the obvious place to start). Whether it is worth 4pts (and the loss of agility) is a whole different question of course, but I thought it was worth challenging the idea that focus gives superior numbers. I think it may be reasonable given the flexibility it gives you to decide whether you need to be more aggressive vs more defensive turn by turn, and it gives TIE variants (I'm thinking TIE advanced particularly) a much-needed attacking boost.

TL;DR - Focus gives more hits on average but not necessarily more damage.

 

ETA: PtL can give both a TL and Focus, which will tilt the numbers a bit BUT it gives a stress, limiting you in the next turn (so it is hard to calculate the absolute utility).


Edited by Two_Hands, 14 December 2013 - 09:27 PM.


#76 Ravncat

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 11:58 PM

Ok, I just did some nutty calculations - they should be alright - We can see something interesting with expose vs focus...

3 dice - focused. Expected hits= 2.25 Variance = 5.627
4 dice - exposed. Expected hits= 2 Variance = 5

4 dice - focused. Expected hits= 2.99 Variance =9.75
5 dice - exposed. Expected hits=2.5 Variance = 7.5

In addition to being able to see the extra hit with expose, There's also smaller variance when using Expose vs Focus. This means that the Standard Deviation for Expose is lower than the standard deviation* for focus. Which says we're more likely to see a value closer to the expected hit value. (Things get more convoluted when you factor in evade dice).

This also treats hits and critical hits the same - but it's pretty easy to work out the critical hit probabilities (just not so much their value over a regular hit). It's fairly obvious that Expose increases your odds of seeing more critical hits...

Expected Critical hits on 3,4 and 5 dice = 3/8ths , 4/8ths, 5/8ths... Comparing to target lock is a bit tougher - since that changes the crit probability somewhat - each die you reroll is adding another 1/8th...

*Just square root the variance for the Std deviation.

 

Edit: Here's a graph! Because we all like Graphs...

FocusVsExpose_zps61100d13.jpg


Edited by Ravncat, 16 December 2013 - 04:45 AM.





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