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Bloodbowl Team Manager: Team Comparative Analyses


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#21 arwaker

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 09:05 AM

Considering Tackle

How often, it is really successful. How often (percent of all Tackles) you have a ball-advantage therefore?

There are many things that lead to no ball-advantage compared to before (numbers are only raw guess):

 

- You have the ball (~33%)

- Ball is in the middle (~33%)

- Enemy has the ball, but guards his ball carrier (~12%)

- Enemy doesnt guard, but ball carrier has sure hands or dump off (~7%)

- None of the above, therefore you can get the ball from enemy to mid, if your roll is successful (~15%)

 

So, 15% of your successful tackles result in an additional advantage due to the ball fumble of the former carrier.

Not as much imho, about 0.3 points per tackle at most, maybe even 0.2

 

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Good target enemies of STR3 tackle-players are mostly 2-1, and therefore you gain 1 star for a successful tackle.

Some of the enemies even have dodge (reduced chances).

Some Skaven have 2-0, with makes them vulnerable to tackle-heavy teams (increased reward).

 

Only in very few situations, you are able to get more than 1 with a tackle:

- High risk tackles vs other 3-1 players (not recommended, but sometimes worth the risk)

- Killing downed enemies that have cheat tokens on them.

 

So the average here is something slightly above 1, maybe 1.4? But never ever 2.

 

STR4 players often have the chance to tackle 3-1 players, which doubles the reward. But these STR3 players do not often carry the ball. And they are often guarded as well.

Assuming the reward is increased by 0.8 due to chance of 3-1 tackles, but decreased by 0.1 due to decreased propability of ball tackles, the STR4 tackle is 0.7 ponits more than a STR3 tackle.

 

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STR2 players are often used to knock down guards or try risky tackles.

They should get about 0.7 points per tackle for kicking downed players or guards, and maybe 0.1 for the chance to kick the ballcarrier. Sometimes they might be able to negate cheat tokens, which should increase their value a further 0.1

This might result in a total value of 0.9 points per tackle.

 

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STR5 players have only few chances to increase their value compared to STR4 players, because there are only few enemies, where the +1makes a difference. But there are several 4-1 starplayers out there, where the reward would be 3.

I think STR5 is only about 0.5 more worth than STR4 tackle.

 

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BUT:

BUT:

Lots of enemies have downed skills (the addon actually reduced the strength of tackle significantly) or counter-tackles (eg Tree, Mino), that you dont really like to activate. This should compensate a bit with the ball advantage at about -0.2 or -0.1

 

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And the mentioned advantage of the enemy being unable to use text-rules:

Can't see any cardtext that might be relevant. Most of them get activated when the player entry the game, and have no effect later on (when you might be able to tackle him).

Some starplayers have skills that can be countered by tackleing them, but they are few.

This effect should not be more than 0.1 per tackle.

 

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All in all, it comes down to about :

- 0.9 points per tackle for a STR2 player

- 1.5 points per tackle for a STR3 player

- 2.2 points per tackle for a STR4 player

- 2.7 points per tackle for a STR5 player (in case one wants to value those starplayers)


Edited by arwaker, 18 March 2014 - 03:04 AM.


#22 Prepare for War

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 10:30 AM

Awesome analysis on that!

 

The only thing I'd mention though the element of choice puts a little more complexity into that. Re this bit, for example...:

 

"- You have the ball (~33%)

- Ball is in the middle (~33%)

- Enemy has the ball, but guards his ball carrier (~12%)

- Enemy doesnt guard, but ball carrier has sure hands or dump off (~7%)

- None of the above, therefore you can get the ball from enemy to mid, if your roll is successful (~15%)"

 

...the thing is you'd tend to use block when its going to hit a ball carrier.

Sure hands and dump off and dodge certainly discourage and devalue blocking as well, but I'd say that other skills don't need to reduce the score value of tackle, because they're given value ratings of their own in our analysis. Certainly though I think its possible to devalue tackling generally compared to passing by saying theres more counters to tackling than passing, but also I'd note that tackling is the solution/counter to more plays than passing is.

 

Its in the same way that we don't devalue pass by saying that it only applies 2/3 of the time, because you generally don't use a pass icon when the ball is already in your possession, save in edge cases. Likewise you don't sprint when you have the perfect hand or when it will mess up the shuffle position.

 

In fact, aside from Cheat tokens, there's an element of choice in all the core skill icons, and that has to be taken into account, I think.

 

Re:

 

"All in all, it comes down to about :

- 0.9 points per tackle for a STR2 player

- 1.5 points per tackle for a STR3 player

- 2.2 points per tackle for a STR4 player

- 2.7 points per tackle for a STR5 player (in case one wants to value those starplayers)"

 

...I think that is very reasonable, and probably better than the value I assigned initially. Of course, this is largely due to subjective factors and a lot of things can't easily by quanitfied (like the element of choice, and how often in game you have a workable choice).

 

My default assumption that blocks take down an average of 2 Star Power is false, I think, as I was basing that on play experiences in a group that strongly favours humans and skaven.

 

I think its hard to be confident enough about values to get the values down to 0.1 steps. But certainly I'd agree now it probably ought to be about 1 pt for tackle on STR 2 and 1.5 pts on tackle on STR 3.


Edited by Prepare for War, 18 March 2014 - 10:31 AM.


#23 arwaker

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 08:27 AM

Awesome analysis on that!

Thx for the honey

 

...the thing is you'd tend to use block when its going to hit a ball carrier.

The teams that are most affected by the "pricing" of tackle, are those who have a lot of tackle.

They simply can't do their tackles only when they can hit the ball-carrier. They tackle nearly every turn, regardless who has the ball.

 

Sure hands and dump off and dodge certainly discourage and devalue blocking as well, but I'd say that other skills don't need to reduce the score value of tackle, because they're given value ratings of their own in our analysis.

 

I dont think you can see the individual abilities as completely separated from each other. As they directly affect the reward of a tackle icon, they should be considered closely. If they would be rare, I'd agree with you, but in reality it is more like most of the relevant ball-carriers have one of those tackle defensive skills.

Imagine every player-card would have one of those skills, would you still think the pricing of tackle would be unaffected? Even if they all payed for these skills?

Imagine every player would have a skill which sounds like "cant be tackled" for 3 value? Still no effect on pricing of tackle?

I think one should consider everything in combination with everything else, not separated.

 

Its in the same way that we don't devalue pass by saying that it only applies 2/3 of the time, because you generally don't use a pass icon when the ball is already in your possession, save in edge cases. Likewise you don't sprint when you have the perfect hand or when it will mess up the shuffle position.

 

Imho, pass should as well not be worth 2 points. In my considerations it was more like 1.7 for the first and 2.4 for the second.

 

 

In fact, aside from Cheat tokens, there's an element of choice in all the core skill icons, and that has to be taken into account, I think.

 

Yeah, that's why cheat tokes are only worth about 1, and not more.

Considering the average amount of starpower and fans a cheat provides, it should be more, but one is forced to use the cheat, and therefore it's real benefit is smaller.

 

Furthermore, we should consider a smaller value for chat tokens on strong players and eligible ball-carriers. For them, the danger of getting sent off is a greater problem, compared to more "useless" players. They have "more to lose".

 

My suggestion would be:

First Cheat on STR2 = 1.2

First Cheat on STR3 = 1

First Cheat on STR4 = 0.8

Second Cheat = 2/3 of the first cheat

Third Cheat = 1/3 of the first cheat

Cheat for Ball-Carrier = -0.4 each

 

Of course, this is largely due to subjective factors and a lot of things can't easily by quanitfied (like the element of choice, and how often in game you have a workable choice).

Very true. Thats why we are discussing about it :)

 

 

And btw: sry for my potentially bad english, its not my native language. I have the game in swiss language.
 


Edited by arwaker, 19 March 2014 - 04:24 PM.


#24 Prepare for War

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Posted 21 March 2014 - 12:09 PM

Yep. Thats all I got to say. Yepppp.

 

Can't disagree with anything you're saying there - I wonder how the scores would look if we add them up with the new values in mind?



#25 arwaker

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Posted 24 March 2014 - 05:29 AM

The last really difficult question is how to rate the benefit of Sprint.

What happens? You get a random player (with random value) from your deck, and you discard the least useful player in your hand. Therefore it is worth something like :

 

Average card value - lowest card value

60/12-1.5=3.5

Therefore, Sprint is something about 3.5 points, which sound really a lot firstofall.

 

BUT: several points to consider, that modify this number:

 

 

- You need to use sprint to get the value. Sometimes you would rather use another card, and the sprintig playercard is not the optimal soluthion in that moment. The later you use your sprint, the less useful it gets.

 

- You might not have a bad card to drop. Having 2 times a Blitzer in hand, drawing the third and being forced to discard one of them, results in no benefit at all.

 

- Not to forget the total amount of sprint in your deck. Too much Sprint (as with Woodelf or Skaven), causes a lot more situations, where you dont have a lineman to discard, and you need to discard a wigher rated one like a thrower or catcher.

 

- Imho you underestimate the value of Linemen. This is no problem as long as all teams share the same amount of linemen. But if you discard a lineman and get another card via sprint, in dont think the benefit is as much as you supposed it to be. A guarding lineman often saves you from losing the ball, or getting a 3-1 Blitzer downed by a Troll. In this cases its benefit is more. 

And, if linemen would be considered as more useful compared to the others, Sprint is automatically worth less.

 

- Having too much guard (or no need of it at all like dwarf) in the deck decreases the benefit of Guard. This increases again the benefit of Sprint.

 

- And finally Starplayers. The higher you average card value in your deck gets, the better Sprint gets.

 

 

 

 

All these points must be considered together, if you really want to get good values for Sprint (and guard btw).

In fact i think 1.5 like your suggestion, or even 1.4, is a good number. 

It's really hard to price Sprint correctly.

 

 

Edit: 30.09.2014

Meanwhile I think Sprint is worth something between 1.7 and 2. It is the best of the 4 icons, even better than Pass.


Edited by arwaker, 30 September 2014 - 03:10 AM.

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#26 LinkavichChumofsky

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 03:04 AM

I gotta give you guys props, thanks :) for doing all of this analysis and putting the teams in perspective.  now there is the random aspect, which would explain why Ive beaten orcs, humans, and elves with dwarves.  but that's mainly why I love this game, due to the randomness aspect of it.  now my friend and I just started what we call "Closed team" games where we  only put the star players of the teams in play in the star player decks.  works fairly well especially when two or three different unions are in play.  and helps the understanding of the dynamic of each team when playing this way.  as well as the dynamic of each union.  understandably, we only did this to truly have a comparative analyses for each team.  grant it the uh dwarves left on their own truly depend on good blocking and great cheating tokens lol hope who ever plays them gets a sprinting coach or if playing a regular game, gets a star player that helps them cheat better :)  but over all this game really is an anyone can win type of game. like with the dwarves the strategy isn't to win each highlight but they are pretty much guaranteed to stay at that highlight thus getting their payout for participation.  and when it comes to getting those team up grades and one happens to have a fan club staff upgrade, they can sit there and gain two fans (for the end game) where there aren't any fans to get at that match up. and same applies to the staff upgrade" staff office" and others that give you endgame fans for certain cards gained by the star player deck.  so they kinda start out slow but gain momentum and cant be stopped too easily when they do.  but my top three are definitely the scavern, wood elves, and my most recent black fangs.  I love strategy and there are two, three or more ways to play with each team.  the trick is to find which one(s) works best for the team your playing with and sticking with it/them.  lol one of our players has horrible luck with rolling dice so he often chooses not to tackle lol and same with some I know who inevitably every time gets an ejection token so they now play with wood elves and no one else lol if they can help it.  now, I loved using the dwarves in the sudden death for the first time, since I got the underdogs staff upgrade.  cause those cheating tokens add up and can really help one or two players gain the right amt of star power to win lol (hoping the entire time Im not ejected of course) ok that's my analysis without doing any math equations lol


Edited by LinkavichChumofsky, 23 April 2014 - 03:12 AM.


#27 Barl

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Posted 14 September 2014 - 04:28 PM

So any chance any of you guys can/will do an analysis of the new teams and rate them with other older teams?



#28 Indalecio

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Posted 15 September 2014 - 03:24 AM

- You need to use sprint to get the value. Sometimes you would rather use another card, and the sprintig playercard is not the optimal soluthion in that moment. The later you use your sprint, the less useful it gets.
 
- You might not have a bad card to drop. Having 2 times a Blitzer in hand, drawing the third and being forced to discard one of them, results in no benefit at all.
 
- Not to forget the total amount of sprint in your deck. Too much Sprint (as with Woodelf or Skaven), causes a lot more situations, where you dont have a lineman to discard, and you need to discard a wigher rated one like a thrower or catcher.


I don't think Sprint loses any usefulness as time goes by. You can always discard the card you just drew if it isn't better than any of the cards you already have in hand. It can also be used as a way of getting rid of cards in your draw pile that you do not want to draw as your starting hand for the next round. If there is only a few cards left in your draw pile, then you can often figure out which cards they are (obviously you don't know in which order though) and decide if you want them in your starting hand or start sprinting to flush them away. At best, the draw pile is emptied and you get better chance to draft your best cards again in the next round. I use that strategy a lot with the Skavens in order to maximize my chances of getting the few star players I drafted back into my hand round after round.

I don't think there can be "too much sprint". I have found that what you want in this game is the ability to make choices. I would commit players in a matchup with a sprint enchanted ball before any other type of effect even if I already play sprint-heavy teams like Skavens and Wood Elves.

Seen from the perspective of the teams which are REALLY lacking a way to get their card draw going, sprint is a must-have ability that has relevance at every stage of the game.

There is also the fact that your opponents will inevitably make calculations and guesses as for what you have left in your hand through the course of the game, based on what you have already played or discarded so far. The final turns are quite representative of that fact. If you draw a new card due to Sprint, then it makes that kind calculation much harder for them.

#29 arwaker

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Posted 16 September 2014 - 08:36 AM

You are right, there cant be "too much sprint", it is always of use. 

Bbut you also cant disclaim, that the first sprint in your deck is more useful than for example the 20th. A sprint trainer is of more use for a team without sprint like orks, than for example for woodelfs.

And as well, even if sprint is useful on the last card in your hand, it is still even more useful on your first card played. The sooner you get better cards on your hand, the better.

So, in order to evaluate the value of sprint for a specific team, it is a necessary requirement to count the quantity of sprints and look at the playercards that have this sprint.


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#30 Prepare for War

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Posted 29 September 2014 - 05:58 AM

Right - even if Sprint is never detrimental, it can fail to be beneficial. If you discard the card you just drew, you've not materialised any benefit, except for a little deck cycling, and that is a marginal benefit, barely worth any value.

 

Complicating things further is that Sprint gets better the more polarised your deck is. If you're playing a team that is all round about even in solidity (the mercurial goblins oddly fill this slot as there are no linemen, the dark elves are also notable for their lack of big guy) then Sprint is less useful. If you're playing a team where there's a lot of benefit in getting a particular card at the right time, then Sprints become more useful (Skaven spring to mind, as there are times when a Gutter Runner is a game winner, and times when it is just a 2 cost  2 strength sprinter, and times when you really really need a Rat Ogre right now, the other one is Vampires, where basically if you don't get to play vampires, you're in the crap).

 

I definitely think my initial estimate undervalues sprint, and with the new teams sprint becomes better because it answers foul.

I also think as the game meta has developed, passing and sprinting teams have become more effective while blocking ones have become weaker. Regeneration, disease tokens,loner, goblin trickery and the rest have all made Block with a mid-high strength less valuable than it was, while magic balls pass more versatile and powerful, and foul and more situationally specific team and star player cards have made sprint better). To balance this a little, while sprint as a useful skill is increased in value, having sprint on your player card has become less important, as there's good odds that pass and a magic ball with sprint on it can take its place.


Edited by Prepare for War, 29 September 2014 - 05:59 AM.


#31 Prepare for War

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Posted 06 October 2014 - 11:10 AM

So any chance any of you guys can/will do an analysis of the new teams and rate them with other older teams?

 

I don't own the new set, my friend does, so I don't have the cards to hand to analyse.

 

Please go ahead and apply the system to see what score comes out though!

 

As it is, we probably need to start this from scratch with new values, I think. There's a new skill in the game, cheat tokens have got more complicated, and theres a tonne of new special abilities. A lot of things need to be rethought in context as well: with Foul in the game, Sprint just got better. But with more easy downing of players, Dwarvish downed strength gets marginally better too. Stadiums also help teams that are weak in one skill, as they have a fair chance to pick a matchup that bans their weak skill: dwarves in a no-sprint stadium would be hard to beat. I also believe I've overvalued skill choice mechanics: a witch elf having block / block + cheat isn't much different from a block + cheat, for example.

 

Right now I'm a bit obsessed with the Conquest LCG, but when I get a chance I'll double back and do a new and improved analysis.


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#32 faust33

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Posted 12 November 2014 - 05:20 PM

If you're a Blood Bowl tabletop player, you've probably heard of FUMBLL. It's interesting to look at the stats from their site and see how things measure up: https://fumbbl.com/p/toplist

 

Something like that would also be useful for Team Manager, as stats are going to sort things out once 1000s of games are recorded.

 

In our games (only using the basic box so far), Wood Elves have won the most games. With Dwarves winning the least games. Coaches (3 at most) have been trying each of the teams, but one player is starting to lock in on the winning team of Wood Elves. Which will probably only last until I figure out how to soundly defeat him with another team.



#33 LinkavichChumofsky

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Posted 13 November 2014 - 04:17 PM

its great, really fun to read, however the game is soo situational that nothing is an "automatic" say like how my team the black fangs beat the undead team just a few minutes ago  lol this analyses actually helped me win a pizza :) thanks cause its blood bowl game night and my friend and I had a lil friendly wager of who would buy the pizza and after I showed em this analyses he was ecstatic cause the undead is his favorite team since the undead expansion and since the foul play teams have not yet been reiterated into the analyses  we chose two teams from this one, first as usual I was going to pick the skaven then he was all oh you scared to use the blackfangs since pizza's envoled so I wound up using the black fangs and since I kept getting the tackles and he could not role xx's tonight, my team just won 40 to 29, now I will say this, My team did go first as I am the youngest but we did flip for it (for fairness) and I one the toss up.  My team did however manage to fulfill the staff upgrades enough like with the five fans for having four star players with out the free booter ability and a staff office upgrade that really helped rack up a few extra points at the end of the game.  my college if you will, went for auto fans and the matchups where only one winner actually got anything thing such as the triple line and personal foul, due to the assumption he was going to place his cards there and win.  one particular match he rolled dos equis with his four star "the mummy" player and downed himself, went for the downed tackle and injured himself, hard call to make but it was his and he made it anyways.  lol he did what I woulda done since my thrower had the ball and was only worth two and the ball was 3(enchanted ball) star power,  however as situational as it gets no matter how "better" one team is than the other, its the luck of the draw, role, and choices you make in the game, that gives it a super incredible playing experience that is truly unpredictable till the very end.  expecially when someone inevitably gets home grown talent lol I swear that's a close to auto win card if ya get it on the first round lol that and its your best friend if you playing the new expansion at the goblin tournament,  cause your not afraid to commit a player since even if ya loose ya just trade that payout for three fans lol.    however "prepare for war"  thank you for the analyses and really putting the cards in perspective at the bare minimal level without any upgrades or anything.  however Please if you have the time, make one that includes the newest expansions, im just curious of how they would rank by your calculations what with the fouling and all.  especially the nurgle with the disease tokens + nurgle rot giving them an additional 1 star and gaurd ability everytime they injure someone.   oh and the hard head ability, I gotta say I am really happy to see them implement more of the many skills that is in the world of blood bowl into this game.   and of course the goblin team, of which at one glance seems like a push over but then when they have two four star players and a five star star player in their next line up seems unbeatable lol I would love to see your grade of pros vs cons of the spree ability.  what with the scenario of if outa 12 cards 2 are four the rest is two or less, and the second hand has both 4 stars and they draw a five star and use the spree ability knowing dang good and well that its gunna be a 2 or less player lol  just don't underestimate em.  at first I didn't they would be that great, but all it takes is one or two perfect plays and they are on top for the fans.  and frantic, just sooo many kool new abilities to add into the calculations of team worth with the new expansion.  hope to see your new analyses soon :)

  And thanks again for your first one.



#34 arwaker

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Posted 14 November 2014 - 04:30 AM

You really think someone is reading this wall of text?



#35 faust33

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Posted 14 November 2014 - 11:56 AM

I haven't looked at all the cards to see how balanced the Star Players are across the divisions, but it seems like some are far better than others. The Dwarven Death Roller can be a real monster when it shows up. It makes me wonder if some teams were created a bit weaker and their Star Player decks compensate. I'm guessing that probably isn't the case, because Chaos, Skaven, and Orcs who are all balanced differently pull from the same division deck.



#36 Prepare for War

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Posted 25 November 2014 - 03:22 PM

You really think someone is reading this wall of text?

 

Hahah. I did, but I would definitely have appreciated some line breaks there.






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