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Bloodbowl Team Manager: Team Comparative Analyses


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#21 arwaker

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 09:05 AM

Considering Tackle

How often, it is really successful. How often (percent of all Tackles) you have a ball-advantage therefore?

There are many things that lead to no ball-advantage compared to before (numbers are only raw guess):

 

- You have the ball (~33%)

- Ball is in the middle (~33%)

- Enemy has the ball, but guards his ball carrier (~12%)

- Enemy doesnt guard, but ball carrier has sure hands or dump off (~7%)

- None of the above, therefore you can get the ball from enemy to mid, if your roll is successful (~15%)

 

So, 15% of your successful tackles result in an additional advantage due to the ball fumble of the former carrier.

Not as much imho, about 0.3 points per tackle at most, maybe even 0.2

 

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Good target enemies of STR3 tackle-players are mostly 2-1, and therefore you gain 1 star for a successful tackle.

Some of the enemies even have dodge (reduced chances).

Some Skaven have 2-0, with makes them vulnerable to tackle-heavy teams (increased reward).

 

Only in very few situations, you are able to get more than 1 with a tackle:

- High risk tackles vs other 3-1 players (not recommended, but sometimes worth the risk)

- Killing downed enemies that have cheat tokens on them.

 

So the average here is something slightly above 1, maybe 1.4? But never ever 2.

 

STR4 players often have the chance to tackle 3-1 players, which doubles the reward. But these STR3 players do not often carry the ball. And they are often guarded as well.

Assuming the reward is increased by 0.8 due to chance of 3-1 tackles, but decreased by 0.1 due to decreased propability of ball tackles, the STR4 tackle is 0.7 ponits more than a STR3 tackle.

 

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STR2 players are often used to knock down guards or try risky tackles.

They should get about 0.7 points per tackle for kicking downed players or guards, and maybe 0.1 for the chance to kick the ballcarrier. Sometimes they might be able to negate cheat tokens, which should increase their value a further 0.1

This might result in a total value of 0.9 points per tackle.

 

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STR5 players have only few chances to increase their value compared to STR4 players, because there are only few enemies, where the +1makes a difference. But there are several 4-1 starplayers out there, where the reward would be 3.

I think STR5 is only about 0.5 more worth than STR4 tackle.

 

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BUT:

BUT:

Lots of enemies have downed skills (the addon actually reduced the strength of tackle significantly) or counter-tackles (eg Tree, Mino), that you dont really like to activate. This should compensate a bit with the ball advantage at about -0.2 or -0.1

 

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And the mentioned advantage of the enemy being unable to use text-rules:

Can't see any cardtext that might be relevant. Most of them get activated when the player entry the game, and have no effect later on (when you might be able to tackle him).

Some starplayers have skills that can be countered by tackleing them, but they are few.

This effect should not be more than 0.1 per tackle.

 

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All in all, it comes down to about :

- 0.9 points per tackle for a STR2 player

- 1.5 points per tackle for a STR3 player

- 2.2 points per tackle for a STR4 player

- 2.7 points per tackle for a STR5 player (in case one wants to value those starplayers)


Edited by arwaker, 18 March 2014 - 03:04 AM.


#22 Prepare for War

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 10:30 AM

Awesome analysis on that!

 

The only thing I'd mention though the element of choice puts a little more complexity into that. Re this bit, for example...:

 

"- You have the ball (~33%)

- Ball is in the middle (~33%)

- Enemy has the ball, but guards his ball carrier (~12%)

- Enemy doesnt guard, but ball carrier has sure hands or dump off (~7%)

- None of the above, therefore you can get the ball from enemy to mid, if your roll is successful (~15%)"

 

...the thing is you'd tend to use block when its going to hit a ball carrier.

Sure hands and dump off and dodge certainly discourage and devalue blocking as well, but I'd say that other skills don't need to reduce the score value of tackle, because they're given value ratings of their own in our analysis. Certainly though I think its possible to devalue tackling generally compared to passing by saying theres more counters to tackling than passing, but also I'd note that tackling is the solution/counter to more plays than passing is.

 

Its in the same way that we don't devalue pass by saying that it only applies 2/3 of the time, because you generally don't use a pass icon when the ball is already in your possession, save in edge cases. Likewise you don't sprint when you have the perfect hand or when it will mess up the shuffle position.

 

In fact, aside from Cheat tokens, there's an element of choice in all the core skill icons, and that has to be taken into account, I think.

 

Re:

 

"All in all, it comes down to about :

- 0.9 points per tackle for a STR2 player

- 1.5 points per tackle for a STR3 player

- 2.2 points per tackle for a STR4 player

- 2.7 points per tackle for a STR5 player (in case one wants to value those starplayers)"

 

...I think that is very reasonable, and probably better than the value I assigned initially. Of course, this is largely due to subjective factors and a lot of things can't easily by quanitfied (like the element of choice, and how often in game you have a workable choice).

 

My default assumption that blocks take down an average of 2 Star Power is false, I think, as I was basing that on play experiences in a group that strongly favours humans and skaven.

 

I think its hard to be confident enough about values to get the values down to 0.1 steps. But certainly I'd agree now it probably ought to be about 1 pt for tackle on STR 2 and 1.5 pts on tackle on STR 3.


Edited by Prepare for War, 18 March 2014 - 10:31 AM.


#23 arwaker

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 08:27 AM

Awesome analysis on that!

Thx for the honey

 

...the thing is you'd tend to use block when its going to hit a ball carrier.

The teams that are most affected by the "pricing" of tackle, are those who have a lot of tackle.

They simply can't do their tackles only when they can hit the ball-carrier. They tackle nearly every turn, regardless who has the ball.

 

Sure hands and dump off and dodge certainly discourage and devalue blocking as well, but I'd say that other skills don't need to reduce the score value of tackle, because they're given value ratings of their own in our analysis.

 

I dont think you can see the individual abilities as completely separated from each other. As they directly affect the reward of a tackle icon, they should be considered closely. If they would be rare, I'd agree with you, but in reality it is more like most of the relevant ball-carriers have one of those tackle defensive skills.

Imagine every player-card would have one of those skills, would you still think the pricing of tackle would be unaffected? Even if they all payed for these skills?

Imagine every player would have a skill which sounds like "cant be tackled" for 3 value? Still no effect on pricing of tackle?

I think one should consider everything in combination with everything else, not separated.

 

Its in the same way that we don't devalue pass by saying that it only applies 2/3 of the time, because you generally don't use a pass icon when the ball is already in your possession, save in edge cases. Likewise you don't sprint when you have the perfect hand or when it will mess up the shuffle position.

 

Imho, pass should as well not be worth 2 points. In my considerations it was more like 1.7 for the first and 2.4 for the second.

 

 

In fact, aside from Cheat tokens, there's an element of choice in all the core skill icons, and that has to be taken into account, I think.

 

Yeah, that's why cheat tokes are only worth about 1, and not more.

Considering the average amount of starpower and fans a cheat provides, it should be more, but one is forced to use the cheat, and therefore it's real benefit is smaller.

 

Furthermore, we should consider a smaller value for chat tokens on strong players and eligible ball-carriers. For them, the danger of getting sent off is a greater problem, compared to more "useless" players. They have "more to lose".

 

My suggestion would be:

First Cheat on STR2 = 1.2

First Cheat on STR3 = 1

First Cheat on STR4 = 0.8

Second Cheat = 2/3 of the first cheat

Third Cheat = 1/3 of the first cheat

Cheat for Ball-Carrier = -0.4 each

 

Of course, this is largely due to subjective factors and a lot of things can't easily by quanitfied (like the element of choice, and how often in game you have a workable choice).

Very true. Thats why we are discussing about it :)

 

 

And btw: sry for my potentially bad english, its not my native language. I have the game in swiss language.
 


Edited by arwaker, 19 March 2014 - 04:24 PM.


#24 Prepare for War

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Posted 21 March 2014 - 12:09 PM

Yep. Thats all I got to say. Yepppp.

 

Can't disagree with anything you're saying there - I wonder how the scores would look if we add them up with the new values in mind?



#25 arwaker

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Posted 24 March 2014 - 05:29 AM

The last really difficult question is how to rate the benefit of Sprint.

What happens? You get a random player (with random value) from your deck, and you discard the least useful player in your hand. Therefore it is worth something like :

 

Average card value - lowest card value

60/12-1.5=3.5

Therefore, Sprint is something about 3.5 points, which sound really a lot firstofall.

 

BUT: several points to consider, that modify this number:

 

 

- You need to use sprint to get the value. Sometimes you would rather use another card, and the sprintig playercard is not the optimal soluthion in that moment. The later you use your sprint, the less useful it gets.

 

- You might not have a bad card to drop. Having 2 times a Blitzer in hand, drawing the third and being forced to discard one of them, results in no benefit at all.

 

- Not to forget the total amount of sprint in your deck. Too much Sprint (as with Woodelf or Skaven), causes a lot more situations, where you dont have a lineman to discard, and you need to discard a wigher rated one like a thrower or catcher.

 

- Imho you underestimate the value of Linemen. This is no problem as long as all teams share the same amount of linemen. But if you discard a lineman and get another card via sprint, in dont think the benefit is as much as you supposed it to be. A guarding lineman often saves you from losing the ball, or getting a 3-1 Blitzer downed by a Troll. In this cases its benefit is more. 

And, if linemen would be considered as more useful compared to the others, Sprint is automatically worth less.

 

- Having too much guard (or no need of it at all like dwarf) in the deck decreases the benefit of Guard. This increases again the benefit of Sprint.

 

- And finally Starplayers. The higher you average card value in your deck gets, the better Sprint gets.

 

 

 

 

All these points must be considered together, if you really want to get good values for Sprint (and guard btw).

In fact i think 1.5 like your suggestion, or even 1.4, is a good number. 

It's really hard to price Sprint correctly.


Edited by arwaker, 24 March 2014 - 05:35 AM.

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#26 LinkavichChumofsky

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 03:04 AM

I gotta give you guys props, thanks :) for doing all of this analysis and putting the teams in perspective.  now there is the random aspect, which would explain why Ive beaten orcs, humans, and elves with dwarves.  but that's mainly why I love this game, due to the randomness aspect of it.  now my friend and I just started what we call "Closed team" games where we  only put the star players of the teams in play in the star player decks.  works fairly well especially when two or three different unions are in play.  and helps the understanding of the dynamic of each team when playing this way.  as well as the dynamic of each union.  understandably, we only did this to truly have a comparative analyses for each team.  grant it the uh dwarves left on their own truly depend on good blocking and great cheating tokens lol hope who ever plays them gets a sprinting coach or if playing a regular game, gets a star player that helps them cheat better :)  but over all this game really is an anyone can win type of game. like with the dwarves the strategy isn't to win each highlight but they are pretty much guaranteed to stay at that highlight thus getting their payout for participation.  and when it comes to getting those team up grades and one happens to have a fan club staff upgrade, they can sit there and gain two fans (for the end game) where there aren't any fans to get at that match up. and same applies to the staff upgrade" staff office" and others that give you endgame fans for certain cards gained by the star player deck.  so they kinda start out slow but gain momentum and cant be stopped too easily when they do.  but my top three are definitely the scavern, wood elves, and my most recent black fangs.  I love strategy and there are two, three or more ways to play with each team.  the trick is to find which one(s) works best for the team your playing with and sticking with it/them.  lol one of our players has horrible luck with rolling dice so he often chooses not to tackle lol and same with some I know who inevitably every time gets an ejection token so they now play with wood elves and no one else lol if they can help it.  now, I loved using the dwarves in the sudden death for the first time, since I got the underdogs staff upgrade.  cause those cheating tokens add up and can really help one or two players gain the right amt of star power to win lol (hoping the entire time Im not ejected of course) ok that's my analysis without doing any math equations lol


Edited by LinkavichChumofsky, 23 April 2014 - 03:12 AM.





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