Interesting! I tried logging my games at one point, but was using the boardgamegeek form of logging app and was slow didn't like the lack of querying to make a spreadsheet like that.
I think there could be a lot of variables to what deteremins a civ or victory condition to win?
2 players I assume becomes mostly a military victory only kind of condition, probably favoring those with warmongering abilities.
4 players I think any civ could be even due to the diplomacy of the game and your manipulation to sway others to stay away from yo uso you can win.
When introducing the game to new players, I would try to suggest HEAVILY to get their army competitive with everyone else, as I would see people fall too often due to military weakness.
This chart will help me say "he's the mongols, he statistically has a chance of winning unless we keep him at bay early" so hopefully people will listen to me this time... unless I'm the Mongols... actually i'll still say it..