I think it's a solid analogy… in order to avoid a run on as I've let myself do in the past, I'll break down the circumstances where a trace is taken into account in my views.
I am using bits as I cannot remember exactly what the terminology is going to be Creds perhaps, anyway, not important, but the ideas are what I'm trying to get across.
Runner runs into an ice with a trace subroutine that sie can break, it is hir decision to either break the subroutine (fold - The runner has folded as sie has paid the cost to break that trace and those bits are gone.) or allow it to go through [or not be able to stop it] (call - The runner has entered into a pot.).
Now, assuming the runner allows the trace to go through, we go to our actual pot.
If the corporation is willing to outspend what the runner can do, the corporation tags the runner (wins the pot)
The corporation wants a tag on the runner because they have the cards in hand and resources on the table to take advantage of a tagged runner(They have the hole cards.), but cannot outspend what the runner can do, they commit as much to the trace as they are willing to. The runner can either:
[runner misreads the corp and feels safe in having a tag] save their bits (call - The runner feels like the corp can't do anything to hir and is willing to have a tag as they don't believe the corp has the resources to hurt them, or doesn't have the hole cards to beat them to further the Poker analogy) or…
[runner correctly reads the corp] give enough bits to prevent the tag (fold - The runner is going to lose the bits. Sie feels like the Corp has the resources in hand, on the board, etc to take advantage of the tag, furthering the Poker analogy the runner fee)
The corporation wants only to drain the bank account of the runner because they don't have the necessary cards in hand(They are bluffing), at this point they are trying to commit enough to the pot that the runner will still use what they can to avoid the trace.
[runner misreads the corp and feels threatened] gives enough bits to avoid the tag (fold - The runner loses the bits).
[runner correctly reads the corp] takes the tag (call - The runner saves their bits).
All of these are magnified the closer the bit pools of the runner and corp are. (Just as in poker, hands mean much more when the players involved have closer stacks.)
The player that correctly reads the situations and can make more meaningful decisions will eventually have the proper currency to win the game, be it by making more effectual runs, or being able to more efficiently protect and advance their agendas.