First of all I am not sure whether you play with Tides of Battle Cards. Their appearance really demolishes any strategy, based on math and calculations.
Even if we assume we don't use them:
- I guarantee that if you engage on Ironman's Bay GJ will put a card with a sword. It either forces a Hound Card, which leaves you helpless further on or kills a ship. I wouldn't hesitate to put Euron (+4). It leaves you a possibility to use a sword in the upcoming match for Riverrun, also it helps you win in case if Lannister places Tywin (just use sword here).
- The good option would be to use march orders on ship in port (March -1) and on Pyke (March +0). So after Ironman's Bay was engaged on, you just move ship to Ironman's Bay and wait.
- At this point it doesn't matter whether Lannister takes Riverrun, GJ moves FM to Riverrun and Knight to Seaguard. Since he got a sword left - GJ doesn't need to use a strong card.
- If we assume that there was no clash of kings card resolved, the next turn for GJ is quite easy: March -1 on to Ironman's Bay and March +0 on Seaguard. Raid Order for Riverrun.
- Lannister must have mustered at least one ship. So now he had total strength of 6 in Lannisport (if he mustered FM + ship) and 1 elsewhere.
- GJ doesn't care if Lannister attacks Riverrun of the next turn. If Lannister marches from Lannisport to take Riverrun, GJ will invade Golden and takes Lannisport with Knight, Balon. There is no point using Balon earlier. And Victorian GJ is enough to win sea battle. If Lannister doesn't move from Lannisport, GJ will take Flint's finger and just repeat the March order +0 on the knight. Sheep can now support in Ironman's Bay and Mustering card will be disaster. (If it didn't come on 1st turn, which would mean a disaster even earlier).
Edited by dancemachine, 05 March 2014 - 04:54 AM.