Recently I bought the King in Yellow expansion, and for us the challenging level increased a lot (yep, we lost). We played with the Herald and the Touring Performance Style. However, the next game we played with the Permanent Performance Style and we never got a single The Next Act Begins! card.
Since I do not own the Miskatonic expansion I lack of the new Act cards that deals with dilution. Anyway, the original The Next Act Begins! cards are pretty nasty (penalties of 2 doom tokens and 2 elder signs!), nastier than the new Act cards (maybe too nasty?).
So, by the moment, I have worked in a Herald that tries to preserve the probabilities of getting a The Next Act Begins! card from the Touring Performance variant. It is built on top of the original King in Yellow Herald, with added rules only at the start of the game and under the "Haunting Performance" title.
Greetings, and please let me know your comments and suggestions.
KiY brings 27 Mythos cards, including 6 The Next Act Begins! cards.
Since there are 27 possible combinations when playing the Touring Performance (only the KiY Mythos cards on top of that deck) the probability of getting a The Next Act Begins! card is 6/27 or 22%.
Using two dice, we can get a double on the following combinations: 1&1, 2&2, 3&3, 4&4, 5&5, and 6&6. That is 6 combinations in all.
To get a normal success (besides the 5 and 6 doubles) we have 2 combinations, 5&6 and 6&5.
That's a total of 8 combinations.
Since there are 36 possible combinations when throwing a pair of dice, the probability of getting a double and/or a normal succes is 8/36 or 22%.