Since starting X-Wing last January I have been fascinated with the maths at the core of the game. As a game designer myself, it I appreciate the elegance with which the system works. WIth a basic level of maths you can work out the average dice rolls and compare the effects of target lock, focus, and a variety of upgrade cards on the attack or defence dice.
At times I have found my fascination with the mathematics of the game draw me into the debate over various issues to highlight mathematical issues, such as the problem with expose, and whether opportunist is better than PtL.
During one such discussion I was arguing that TL or Focus is better than adding attack dice, but it was suggested that there may be additional benefits of the extra dice when you compare it vs defence dice modified by focus and/or evade tokens.
This concept had me intrigued. I had no easy way of proving or disproving whether this was true, or at what point it became true. I realised that to fully calculate the probabilities I would need to work out the probabilities of damage scored after both sets of dice had been rolled and tokens used.
So I set out trying to work this out. There may be a proper way of working this out mathematically, but my maths training ended with A Levels at 18. However, what I can do is write a program that will iterate through all the possible combinations and average them out, and that is indeed what I have done. However, the program is taking a while to run. When I try to run it for 5 dice it takes over 24 hours, if I add in a target lock it's probably going to take nearly a fortnight. And I need to run it separately for each different token combination. Some of the problem might be my crappy old laptop, but if I'm going to complete the project before christmas I'll need some help.
tl:dr - I've got a program to calculate damage probabilities for attack vs defence dice combinations, but it takes so long to run I'll need help to run it through enough times to calculate all the results.
So, if you are willing to help me out, what can you do?
1. If you don't have it already, download Python: https://www.python.org/downloads/
2. Download my python script: https://www.dropbox....nbm30/SWDice.py
3. Choose a combination of tokens you want to try out and post here so that others don't run the same combination.
4. Run the program (set the number of dice to 5, the tokens that you want to include to 1 and those that you don't to 0).
5. copy and paste the results table produced at the end of the program in a reply to this thread.
Thanks for your help,