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Z-Swarm the new swarm meta?


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#41 Millennium Falsehood

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 07:07 AM

Whatever. I don't have a serious attitude about X-wing. I do however have a serious attitude about math, and forgive me if I take offense at someone who doesn't treat it with the respect it deserves.


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Rebel Alliance: 7 X-wings, 5 Y-wings, 4 A-wings, 1 YT-1300, 2 HWK-290s, 3 B-wings, 1 GR-75, 1 CR-90, 5 Z-95 Headhunters, 1 E-wing

Galactic Empire: 7 TIE Fighters, 1 TIE Advanced, 2 Firespray-31s, 1 Lambda class Shuttle, 3 TIE Bombers, 2 TIE Interceptors, 3 181st TIE interceptors, 3 Royal Guard Interceptors

 

"Main characters defeat a Star Trek villain? Give 'em a Star Wars celebration!"


#42 WonderWAAAGH

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 07:37 AM

You know what, I give up. If it takes this level of debate just to make a comment about a ship it's really not worth the effort as far as I'm concerned. Your attitude to this is waaaaay too serious for me. If you think I need to attend a logic and debate course or be a science major to have a valid point of view then there's really no hope for this game long term. Sorry, but I was willing to listen to alternative viewpoints on the Z95 but I've lost interest now. Enjoy your stats and your tournament builds guys, looks like I came to the wrong place.

I wish you all the very best.


I'm not sure what you thought was going to happen, considering the fact that you told us from the outset that you expected to be told that you're wrong. You're welcome to your opinions, of course, but "I'm not a tournament player" and "I think math ruins the game" are not valid reasons for disregarding factual data, whatever your experience might be.

Edited by WonderWAAAGH, 12 July 2014 - 07:37 AM.

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#43 Dieter122

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 08:29 AM

Lots of bickering over a game.

Thought this thread was a discussion about XWing..

Nope.

#44 Aminar

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 08:39 AM

Lots of bickering over a game.
Thought this thread was a discussion about XWing..
Nope.

It quite definitley was and is. Issue being one party decided ignoring the single greatest factor in game effectiveness(so far as ships are concerned) isn't a factor. That destroys the point of reasonable discussion.
Math is a part of X-Wing. Discussions of that math and its validity therein are discussions on X-Wing.
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#45 That One Guy

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 08:43 AM

You don't need to be a statistician to appreciate that odds are calculable and give you a good idea as to the probability of doing a certain thing. 

You can, however, elect not to make statistical calculation factor in to your chosen method… like a certain space-faring rogue we all know.


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#46 Mikael Hasselstein

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 09:11 AM

Hey guys,

 

I don't know if you failed to internalize what Emperor Palpatine just told us, but it's clear that he's had a major loss in his life that he disclosed to us. While that may not have any bearing on our subject matter, it does behoove us to be human beings for a moment and slow down the rhetoric.

 

 

I know you don't care about the "maths" as you call it, but please stop disrespecting the hard work done by people to try and estimate the effectiveness of new units and find out what they're best suited for.

1. I am well educated thank you. You have never met me so how can you make comments about my standard of education?

...

1. I never said anything about your education, but the fact that you dismiss math as a factor clearly indicated to me that you're a liberal arts major of some kind. The kind of math involved with this sort of thing is stuff that most people in the sciences learn in the first couple years of basic courses, so it shouldn't have been something you'd dismiss if you were a science major of some kind.

 

MF, my friend...

 

"Maths" is the British way of abbreviating 'mathematics', There's nothing wrong or uneducated about calling it that.

 

AND, flaming on the liberal arts as not being a school of disciplines that uses mathematics turns around the discussion of education on you. I teach social sciences under a 'College of Liberal Arts', and the idea that we don't use mathematics is preposterous. Statistical mathematics, our stock in trade in the social sciences, is precisely that branch of mathematics that grows out of the mathematics of probability. 

 

I've had more (and not enough) of that stuff in my long 'liberal arts' career

 

Also, check out what falls under 'Liberal Arts' for a moment. I do think I see 'mathematics' there.


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#47 MajorJuggler

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 09:18 AM

ive seen quite a few people here (mathhammers) say that the 95' is better per point cost than the tie.. there was an entire thread on it somewhere buried here on the forums. tie was 100% and the 95' was like 112% or 106% or something. in comparison a y wing was 88%.  

 

That's my thread here:

 

http://community.fan...ress/?p=1111620

 

The short summary is that 2 shields + 2 hull behind 2 agility is a hair more durable than 3 hull behind 3 agility, accounting for critical hits. Since the Z-95 gets +1PS, it's effective PS1 cost is 11.5, making it more cost efficient looking at just the naked ships. Howlrunner increases 2 base dice damage output by around 35%, which increases the ship's value by ~17%. So Howlrunner TIEs are still better than Z-95's, but once Howlrunner goes down....

 

I intend to also calculate the distribution for the number of hits required to destroy each ship, which should yield almost the same results. There could be a slight bias towards ships with less HP, since any extra damage done to them above and beyond their hull value doesn't actually count towards real damage, whereas it does in my numbers above.

 

Wave 4 Regionals results so far are bearing this out. Z-95's have essentially replaced vanilla X-wings as the successful filler ship of choice, especially in YT-1300 builds.


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#48 Mikael Hasselstein

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 09:31 AM

Ah, I've been hoping you'd jump in.

 

I trust that you're just calculating the 2/2/2/2 against the 2/3/3/0. I would be entirely non-plussed (pun intended) if you had also come up for a way to factor the value of the TIE's superior movement dial. Is there even a way to do that, at all?


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#49 MajorJuggler

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 09:44 AM

Ah, I've been hoping you'd jump in.

 

I trust that you're just calculating the 2/2/2/2 against the 2/3/3/0. I would be entirely non-plussed (pun intended) if you had also come up for a way to factor the value of the TIE's superior movement dial. Is there even a way to do that, at all?

 

Yes, I am just comparing the stat line values for this discussion.

 

I do have a method of comparing dials, but it obviously doesn't affect the raw "jousting" (stat line) values. It's all in the thread that I linked, it's all explained if you want to take the time to get a handle on the underlying assumptions. In general, non stat line capabilities can still be valued pretty well when multiple ships have the same or similar functionality, because then you have a baseline and can check the results against reality. On the other extreme you have the TIE Phantom with a cloak action, which nobody is sure how to properly value yet. The dial in particular I break down into several categories of functionality:

  • tightest turn
  • shortest moves
  • longest moves
  • K-turn options
  • green stress removal
  • unique (currently only 0 move on Lambda)

Again - none of that affects the raw stat line calculations here. Just for kicks though here are the results from that thread. It needs some updating to include more info and wave 5, but is still very informative.

 

 

(boiler plate stuff, background in the "spoiler" tab below)

Spoiler

 

min, std. and max columns are to cover various meta environments, which changes the ship's underlying jousting value. TIE Fighters are used as the 100% reference point for all meta. 

 

Degrees of certainty refer to results in the "Total Efficiency" columns. The Jousting columns are all very high certainty.

 

Very High Degree of Certainty

 

                                         Jousting Efficiency           Total Efficiency      

Ship                            min           std.          max         min         std          max

TIE Fighter                   100.0%    100.0%   100.0%     100.0%   100.0%   100.0%
TIE Fighter + Howl        116.6%    117.1%   117.8%     116.6%    117.1%  117.8%
TIE Advanced               80.6%       80.7%      80.7%       80.9%     81.0%    81.0%
TIE Interceptor              88.3%      89.5%     91.0%         94.5%    95.8%     97.4%
TIE Interceptor + Howl  101.2%     103.2%   105.6%      106.3%   108.3%  110.9%
X-wing                           88.9%       91.8%     94.0%        94.1%     97.1%    99.4%
A-wing                          85.1%       85.1%      85.1%       89.5%      89.5%    89.5%
B-wing                           92.4%      97.2%      100.3%     100.0%   105.2%   108.5%
E-wing                           80.2%      81.4%     82.8%        89.2%     90.5%     92.1%
Z-95                             104.7%     106.6%   107.3%      108.5%   110.5%    111.2%
A-wing + Refit               96.4%       96.5%     96.5%        98.8%     98.9%      98.9%
 

High Degree of Certainty

TIE Bomber: requires ordnance to fill a useful role.

 

                                         Jousting Efficiency           Total Efficiency      

Ship                            min           std.          max         min         std          max

TIE Bomber                 95.8%      97.5%       98.2%       96.2%     97.9%     98.6%

 

 

Medium Degree of Certainty

Y-wing: turret on a 2 attack ship.

YT-1300: 360 degree primary weapon

Firespray: rear arc

 

                                         Jousting Efficiency           Total Efficiency      

Ship                            min           std.          max         min         std          max

Y-wing                         84.9%       88.1%       89.4%       86.5%     89.8%    91.1%
ORS                            60.1%       62.4%       63.3%       82.0%    85.1%    86.3%
Named YT-1300          66.5%       70.0%       72.3%       90.7%    95.4%    98.5%
Firespray                    82.3%       84.9%       87.0%       95.2%     98.2% 100.6%

 

 

Low Degree of Certainty

HWK-290: turret on a 1 attack ship.

Lambda: No K-turns and no white turns

TIE Defender: white K-turn

TIE Phantom: cloak action

 

                                         Jousting Efficiency           Total Efficiency      

Ship                            min           std.          max         min         std          max

HWK-290                     55.0%       57.2%      58.5%      38.2%     39.7%     40.7%
Lambda                       108.1%     113.8%    117.4%     83.6%    87.9%     90.7%
TIE Defender               78.8%       79.9%      81.3%       88.8%    90.0%     91.6%
TIE Phantom                84.6%       88.2%     91.4%        96.4%    100.5%  104.2%
TIE Phantom + cloak   102.3%     105.4%    110.0%      116.6%   120.1% 125.3%

Edited by MajorJuggler, 12 July 2014 - 09:45 AM.

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#50 jpltanis

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 09:54 AM

This just in:

 

In the FFG battle report section, Z-swarm easily won against 3 Tie Defenders battle (1 hr. limit).

 

Hopefully in the days to come, we will begin to see the effectives of the Z-swarm bear out.

 

The weakness in the Z-swarm will probably come against Tie Bombers with proton bombs...   


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#51 Aminar

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 10:47 AM

Hey guys,
 
I don't know if you failed to internalize what Emperor Palpatine just told us, but it's clear that he's had a major loss in his life that he disclosed to us. While that may not have any bearing on our subject matter, it does behoove us to be human beings for a moment and slow down the rhetoric.
 
 

I know you don't care about the "maths" as you call it, but please stop disrespecting the hard work done by people to try and estimate the effectiveness of new units and find out what they're best suited for.

1. I am well educated thank you. You have never met me so how can you make comments about my standard of education?
...
1. I never said anything about your education, but the fact that you dismiss math as a factor clearly indicated to me that you're a liberal arts major of some kind. The kind of math involved with this sort of thing is stuff that most people in the sciences learn in the first couple years of basic courses, so it shouldn't have been something you'd dismiss if you were a science major of some kind.
 
MF, my friend...
 
"Maths" is the British way of abbreviating 'mathematics', There's nothing wrong or uneducated about calling it that.
 
AND, flaming on the liberal arts as not being a school of disciplines that uses mathematics turns around the discussion of education on you. I teach social sciences under a 'College of Liberal Arts', and the idea that we don't use mathematics is preposterous. Statistical mathematics, our stock in trade in the social sciences, is precisely that branch of mathematics that grows out of the mathematics of probability. 
 
I've had more (and not enough) of that stuff in my long 'liberal arts' career
 
Also, check out what falls under 'Liberal Arts' for a moment. I do think I see 'mathematics' there.
That's OK Mikkel but thanks for your kind words. I used the example of Mandy's passing to point out that stats are not all they are cracked up to be, statistically I should not be a widower, but I am and also to point out that correlating X Wing with death, real death that leaves widows, widowers and orphans just doesn't seem right. I thought twice about posting it but I am sure Mandy will not mind and it seemed the best way to illustrate the point.
 
I actually had more to say about the Z95 but the tone the debate was taking meant I lost interest in saying it. Somebody did however send me a PM about it to which I have replied.
 
It is "Maths" over here, you're quite right. You'll find many of our words spelled differently as our English tends to have French influence whereas American English is more phonetic. We put the letter U into many words eg colour, labour and substitute S for Z eg recognize or recognise. We swap letters about too, you guys go to the theater, we go to the theatre, a child spelling those words the American way in our schools would certainly have his or her spelling marked as incorrect and I am sure the reverse applies.
While I am sorry for your loss, the internet is not usually the best place to bring things up. Partially because nobody can respond to your arguments flaws. It's an emotionally charged tactic that either gets ignored or destroys discussions.

I'm going to try to dance around the subject out of respect for the lost. Statistics as a whole is not a study of individual cases. It is the study of the average. The average Z-95 performs very well. The Non-average Z-95 gets blown out of the water by two hits and a crit from a range 1 Tie Fighter. That will happen. But it isn't the typical way things go, and over many games Z-95s will perform well. Judging any ship by worst case scenario(as you presented earlier) is flawed.
As to bringing up death in relation to X-Wing. It's a little unseemly, and the closer it is to anyone here the worse it is. But at some point discussions about world war 2 era planes will come up. That's fine. Somebody here probably lost a grandfather in world war 2, but they've heard about that war so much that if they are still emotionally scarred by it they shouldn't be reading anything where WWII comes up. We've all lost people. It always hurts, and will never stop hurting. But this isn't the place for discussions about them, but sometimes it can be a place to discuss death if it relates to the subject.
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#52 That One Guy

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 10:50 AM

 

Hey guys,

 

I don't know if you failed to internalize what Emperor Palpatine just told us, but it's clear that he's had a major loss in his life that he disclosed to us. While that may not have any bearing on our subject matter, it does behoove us to be human beings for a moment and slow down the rhetoric.

 

 

I know you don't care about the "maths" as you call it, but please stop disrespecting the hard work done by people to try and estimate the effectiveness of new units and find out what they're best suited for.

1. I am well educated thank you. You have never met me so how can you make comments about my standard of education?

...

1. I never said anything about your education, but the fact that you dismiss math as a factor clearly indicated to me that you're a liberal arts major of some kind. The kind of math involved with this sort of thing is stuff that most people in the sciences learn in the first couple years of basic courses, so it shouldn't have been something you'd dismiss if you were a science major of some kind.

 

MF, my friend...

 

"Maths" is the British way of abbreviating 'mathematics', There's nothing wrong or uneducated about calling it that.

 

AND, flaming on the liberal arts as not being a school of disciplines that uses mathematics turns around the discussion of education on you. I teach social sciences under a 'College of Liberal Arts', and the idea that we don't use mathematics is preposterous. Statistical mathematics, our stock in trade in the social sciences, is precisely that branch of mathematics that grows out of the mathematics of probability. 

 

I've had more (and not enough) of that stuff in my long 'liberal arts' career

 

Also, check out what falls under 'Liberal Arts' for a moment. I do think I see 'mathematics' there.

That's OK Mikkel but thanks for your kind words. I used the example of Mandy's passing to point out that stats are not all they are cracked up to be, statistically I should not be a widower, but I am and also to point out that correlating X Wing with death, real death that leaves widows, widowers and orphans just doesn't seem right. I thought twice about posting it but I am sure Mandy will not mind and it seemed the best way to illustrate the point.

 

I actually had more to say about the Z95 but the tone the debate was taking meant I lost interest in saying it. Somebody did however send me a PM about it to which I have replied.

 

It is "Maths" over here, you're quite right. You'll find many of our words spelled differently as our English tends to have French influence whereas American English is more phonetic. We put the letter U into many words eg colour, labour and substitute S for Z eg recognize or recognise. We swap letters about too, you guys go to the theater, we go to the theatre, a child spelling those words the American way in our schools would certainly have his or her spelling marked as incorrect and I am sure the reverse applies.

 

Though over here, both spellings of 'theatre' are accepted, as are 'grey' and 'gray'.  :P



#53 Aminar

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 11:08 AM

Hey guys,
 
I don't know if you failed to internalize what Emperor Palpatine just told us, but it's clear that he's had a major loss in his life that he disclosed to us. While that may not have any bearing on our subject matter, it does behoove us to be human beings for a moment and slow down the rhetoric.
 
 

I know you don't care about the "maths" as you call it, but please stop disrespecting the hard work done by people to try and estimate the effectiveness of new units and find out what they're best suited for.

1. I am well educated thank you. You have never met me so how can you make comments about my standard of education?
...
1. I never said anything about your education, but the fact that you dismiss math as a factor clearly indicated to me that you're a liberal arts major of some kind. The kind of math involved with this sort of thing is stuff that most people in the sciences learn in the first couple years of basic courses, so it shouldn't have been something you'd dismiss if you were a science major of some kind.
 
MF, my friend...
 
"Maths" is the British way of abbreviating 'mathematics', There's nothing wrong or uneducated about calling it that.
 
AND, flaming on the liberal arts as not being a school of disciplines that uses mathematics turns around the discussion of education on you. I teach social sciences under a 'College of Liberal Arts', and the idea that we don't use mathematics is preposterous. Statistical mathematics, our stock in trade in the social sciences, is precisely that branch of mathematics that grows out of the mathematics of probability. 
 
I've had more (and not enough) of that stuff in my long 'liberal arts' career
 
Also, check out what falls under 'Liberal Arts' for a moment. I do think I see 'mathematics' there.
That's OK Mikkel but thanks for your kind words. I used the example of Mandy's passing to point out that stats are not all they are cracked up to be, statistically I should not be a widower, but I am and also to point out that correlating X Wing with death, real death that leaves widows, widowers and orphans just doesn't seem right. I thought twice about posting it but I am sure Mandy will not mind and it seemed the best way to illustrate the point.
 
I actually had more to say about the Z95 but the tone the debate was taking meant I lost interest in saying it. Somebody did however send me a PM about it to which I have replied.
 
It is "Maths" over here, you're quite right. You'll find many of our words spelled differently as our English tends to have French influence whereas American English is more phonetic. We put the letter U into many words eg colour, labour and substitute S for Z eg recognize or recognise. We swap letters about too, you guys go to the theater, we go to the theatre, a child spelling those words the American way in our schools would certainly have his or her spelling marked as incorrect and I am sure the reverse applies.
While I am sorry for your loss, the internet is not usually the best place to bring things up. Partially because nobody can respond to your arguments flaws. It's an emotionally charged tactic that either gets ignored or destroys discussions.
I'm going to try to dance around the subject out of respect for the lost. Statistics as a whole is not a study of individual cases. It is the study of the average. The average Z-95 performs very well. The Non-average Z-95 gets blown out of the water by two hits and a crit from a range 1 Tie Fighter. That will happen. But it isn't the typical way things go, and over many games Z-95s will perform well. Judging any ship by worst case scenario(as you presented earlier) is flawed.
As to bringing up death in relation to X-Wing. It's a little unseemly, and the closer it is to anyone here the worse it is. But at some point discussions about world war 2 era planes will come up. That's fine. Somebody here probably lost a grandfather in world war 2, but they've heard about that war so much that if they are still emotionally scarred by it they shouldn't be reading anything where WWII comes up. We've all lost people. It always hurts, and will never stop hurting. But this isn't the place for discussions about them, but sometimes it can be a place to discuss death if it relates to the subject.
I didn't bring death up mate, somebody else spoke about stats and people being killed as a reply to one of my postings that didn't mention death at all. I merely responded. I personally think X Wing has no relationship to real death or WW2 planes, it has no height rules or tailing rules for a start.
Never said you started it. But you made it very personal very fast.

#54 Darth Ruin

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 11:12 AM

Ignoring the troll, Z mini-swarm is strong filler for lists, as four ships are better than two in general. 

 

In X-Wing, ship numbers do make a difference. However pure swarm is dead due to the strength of Echo in defeating X number of lower PS ships without much difficulty, X being a number 1-5.  


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#55 doji

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 12:41 PM

Whatever. I don't have a serious attitude about X-wing. I do however have a serious attitude about math, and forgive me if I take offense at someone who doesn't treat it with the respect it deserves.



Math is good statistics are worthless.

Statistics is just using math to prove a lie .
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#56 Joe Boss Red Seven

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 12:56 PM

No, we can keep this polite. You just make it sound like you've made up your mind and can't be budged on the issue. It behooves us all to keep an open mind when people hold an opinion that we don't understand. I'll try to address your main points one at a time:

 

1) The Z-95's dial is actually very average, slightly different from an X-Wing's, but no worse. Only three Rebel ships have a 1-hard maneuver (one of which is red, and another you're likely to pay over 42 points for), so that's not really a mark against the Z-95. Similarly, only two Rebel ships have a 5-straight. It does share a 3-K with both the A-Wing and YT. Again, the Z-95's dial is very average, but I count that as a good thing - especially since you're only paying 12 points for it.

 

2) The Z-95's attack is no more weak than your average TIE Fighter, and, according to the math-wingers, the Z-95 is alleged to be slightly more durable than the TIE while costing the same amount. Those two red dice really start to add up when you throw them enough times, which is what you should be doing for only 12 points a ship. I'm not sure a competent player would accuse the TIE Fighter of being mere "cannon fodder," so perhaps we should keep a similarly open mind about the Z-95.

 

3) The Z-95 is far and away a better generic missile platform than the A-Wing. The A-Wing is overpriced enough as it is, without factoring in the cost of ordnance. Five ships loaded for bear makes for one heck of an alpha-strike, and the fact that you can field that many ships mitigates the risk of losing one before it shoots, owing to its low PS. When it comes to fielding ordnance, no other ship compares to the Z-95, not even the TIE Bomber.

 

4) Both of the named pilots are slightly more niche than your average Z-95, so they don't fit the same filler role as a Bandit or Tala Squadron Pilot. Blount is good when you absolutely have to get a missile off, and Cracken is quickly becoming one of my favorite Rebel pilots. At only 21 points - the same cost as a Rookie Pilot - you get a ship that can share both an action and PS8 at range 1. He is more fragile than your average X-Wing, which means you can't just throw him into any list and expect your opponent to ignore him. If you can find a way to protect him, however, that's still less than a quarter of your points well spent.

 

Pretty good write up Greenie!

:)


"There Is No Such Thing As Luck." BLACK SIX RED SEVEN

STAR WARS is far more than three thirty year old films. FFG intends for X-Wing to thrive, thus it will be more also... PERIOD.

ALLIANCE: [A-WING: 4][B-WING: 4][E-WING: 3][HWK-290: 1][X-WING: 6][Y-WING: 5][Z-95: 6][YT-1300: 1][YT-2400: 1] EMPIRE: [TIE ADVANCED: 1][TIE BOMBER: 3][TIE DEFENDER: 3][TIE FIGHTER: 6][TIE INTERCEPTOR: 6][TIE PHANTOM: 3][VT-49: 1][LAMBDA: 1] SCUM: [FIRESPRAY-31: 1][HWK-290: 3][IG-2000: ][M3-A: ][STAR VIPER: ][Y-WING: 1][Z-95: 1]


#57 Swedge

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 01:06 PM

historically all one has to do is look at The battle of Britain and the Spitfire (X-wing) and Hurricane (Z-95).... 


  • 0Dark likes this

anybody in the Sumter S.C. area???


#58 VanorDM

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 01:33 PM

I've played a few games with Z's now and they're great ships when used properly. Which is true of most every ship in the game. You don't use X-Wings as fast flankers, you don't use Tie Ints or Fighters as tanks. You don't use stock Hawks as strikers, ect...

The Z-95 swarm isn't that bad, and it's not really limited to just fighting ties. But the beauty of the Z is also how well it works as filler.
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#59 Mikael Hasselstein

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 03:51 PM

 

Whatever. I don't have a serious attitude about X-wing. I do however have a serious attitude about math, and forgive me if I take offense at someone who doesn't treat it with the respect it deserves.


Math is good statistics are worthless.

Statistics is just using math to prove a lie .

 

Really?

Haven't we had enough trolling for one thread already?


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#60 Crabbok

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 04:14 PM

The Z-95 also contains 2 of the cheapest EPTs for rebels.  This means very cheap sources for cards like Squad Leader, Draw their Fire, or Wingman.  






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