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Eldritch Horror Encounter Statistics


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#1 ricedwlit

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Posted 25 June 2014 - 09:03 AM

After reading cards, extracting data into spreadsheets, analysis, and several rounds of post processing, I’ve completed my summary analysis of the various Eldritch Horror encounters.  

 

This information is geared at giving the reader an overview of what the most likely rewards, penalties, and skill tests are for given encounter type (Location, Expedition, Research, etc). Consider this to be a study guide or cheat sheet when it comes to playing Eldritch Horror.  (Of course, there is a lot of data in the cards and this only begins to skim the surface of what can be learned; if you want a deeper dive then I highly recommend Julia’s “Math of Eldritch Horror”.)

 

The analysis is up on BGG as there is no file posting here:

If you are at all interested please download and and take a look; hopefully the information will be useful. Feedback is of course always welcome.

In gathering the data I observed some interesting trends which I’ll include in a followup post. But for this post I’ll just conclude by stating that if you are at all interested please take a look and hopefully the information will be useful. Feedback is of course always welcome.

 

[Edit for formatting]


Edited by ricedwlit, 25 June 2014 - 09:04 AM.

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#2 ricedwlit

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Posted 25 June 2014 - 09:06 AM

Some observations on how Forsaken Lore makes the game more difficult

 

Based on the reported data, adding Forsaken Lore to Eldritch Horror makes the overall game more difficult (roughly a 61% loss rate when Forsaken Lore is included versus just 46% loss rate for Eldritch Horror alone).  When looking for reasons why, two of the conditions that came with Forsaken Lore stand out:

  • Poisoned: indirectly delays investigators by removing access to regaining health/sanity via rest actions until condition is removed (which may grant another condition) as well as causing health loss during reckonings.

  • Lost in Time and Space: essentially wipes out an investigators entire turn.

Given that every game of Eldritch Horror has a maximum number of rounds before the Investigators lose and both conditions slow down the pace of the investigators it is easy to see that each of these can make the game more difficult,

 

In looking at the actual data in my summary document here are some other items that contribute to this increase in difficulty:

  1. In the base game there is a 99% likelihood that a research encounter will include a means whereby the investigator can obtain one (or even two) clues.  In contrast, when you include Research encounters from Forsaken Lore, the overall likelihood drops to roughly 87%.  For some Ancient ones, it’s even lower (e.g. Cthulhu is 83% on average).  Given that obtaining clues is crucial for solving most mysteries and rumors, it stands to reason that if some research encounters  don’t include a way to obtain a clue (regardless of passing or failing a test) then it will take investigators more rounds get clues thereby increasing the likelihood of losing.  

  2. There is a slight reduction in the chance to gain an artifact from an expedition (roughly 8% less).  (Note: there is roughly no change in the likelihood to gain an Artifact via other encounters). This is troubling given that several of the mysteries introduced with the expansion require the investigators to obtain an artifact.  Again there is a pattern: increase the amount of time to obtain something necessary and thereby increase the likelihood of defeat given that overall time is bounded.

  3. With a few exceptions, adding in cards from Forsaken Lore reduces the % of “Good” outcomes for a given encounter (and hence an increase in the % of “Mixed” and/or “Bad” outcomes).  Simply put, encounters are less likely to give you something for nothing.  One interesting exception is that Cthulhu research diversified slightly going for 100% “Mixed” outcomes to small % of “Good” or “Bad” outcomes (with the majority still being “Mixed”).

 

I’ll close with some other tidbits of information, neither of which necessarily changes the difficulty of the game (but both of which may impact how you choose to play).

  1. The data shows two interesting trends when you include Forsaken Lore cards regarding how often skills are tested:

    • For location encounters, you are 3.5% more likely to have perform a skill test of some type. Note this an overall average. Some location show a much greater increase (e.g. Tokyo increases from 63% to 81%) and some actually decrease (e.g. Rome goes from 88% to 81%).

    • For research encounters, you are 10% less likely to have to perform skill test (this excludes Yig’s research encounters since he is not present in the base game). The decrease is due to an increased number of encounters that instead require you instead defeat a monster or gain a specific condition.  Cases that are not straight up tests are hard to plan for and hence may make things a bit more difficult (especially the “gain a condition” type cards since you may be unwilling or unable to do so).

  2. Last, regarding the type of skill that are tested: nothing really changes here. The top skill that might be tested for a location doesn’t change, although the % of tests that require it may.  For example, while Observation remained the most tested skill for London, it dropped from being used 83% of the time to just 54% of the time.  This might have an impact on play given that there is increase in which other skill might be tested, and that might be one that the given investigator is not as good at.

[Edit for style]


Edited by ricedwlit, 25 June 2014 - 09:09 AM.

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#3 xodarap

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Posted 25 June 2014 - 12:52 PM

Um, does anyone here ever play just because they wanna' be surprised?  Geez, some of you act as if there's money or something riding on this....    I know people who were playing for 60K that left more to be discovered in game! 


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#4 ricedwlit

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Posted 25 June 2014 - 01:48 PM

Surprise is good ... I didn't start on this until I'd played over a two dozen games. However, that said, some of us are suckers for data  ... lots of data.  And once we learn something, we can't help but share.  :)


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#5 Husker949

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 05:57 AM

I agree with ricedwlit, while I may play the game to enjoy playing it I also like to have an idea on what I am going to be getting into when playing it. I would rather know if I should bother attempting these expeditions as Diana, or going to that research encounter as Jim. Having a break down like this helps to strategize and make the most out of a game that has been played quite a bit. We have played so much to date, that we need to try modifying so all of the easy cards are removed, and we start with a rumor. Out of the 3 dozen games I have played we have lost not one time. Most aren't posted on the stats here because I don't really remember them at all, but we are at a 100% win ratio with 4 heroes, and a handful of 3 heroes. Not to say we didn't come damn close to losing 90% of them, but the dice gods were in our favor when we needed them the most.



#6 Julia

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 05:20 PM

Ricedwlit,

 

thanks for the lovely analysis and the comprehensive charts. Really, a good job :)

 

 

JULIA


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#7 ricedwlit

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 06:43 PM

Julia, 

 

You are very welcome.  What can I say - I'm a sucker for crunching data.


Edited by ricedwlit, 26 June 2014 - 06:46 PM.


#8 Julia

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Posted 27 June 2014 - 01:42 AM

Aye, so am I. Additionally, I believe these reports are really interesting, especially for those who need some strategic help on "who to send where and what are the risk connected"


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#9 xodarap

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Posted 05 July 2014 - 10:33 AM

Surprise is good ... I didn't start on this until I'd played over a two dozen games. However, that said, some of us are suckers for data  ... lots of data.  And once we learn something, we can't help but share.  :)

I'm imagining what my win loss ratio will be like after I've played over 24 games. (Especially without Jackie, poor girl....) I dunno' maybe that WOULD send me running for a spreadsheet! 

 

Sucker for data too huh?  Can't help but share you say?  OH!  Lookee here.....  Someone just happened to drop the names of four books right in front of my computer......weird huh?  I mean what could Chaos, The Dancing Wu Li Masters, Relativity and other essays, and MathMagic have to do with calculating Arkham Horror statistics?   

 

Could be useful, maybe you should check it out?   *maniacal laughter omitted because, DUH, who want's to be THAT obvious?*


"Hastur. Hastur. Hastur. Suck it, my girlfriend is Science!"
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#10 xodarap

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Posted 05 July 2014 - 10:43 AM

I agree with ricedwlit, while I may play the game to enjoy playing it I also like to have an idea on what I am going to be getting into when playing it. I would rather know if I should bother attempting these expeditions as Diana, or going to that research encounter as Jim. Having a break down like this helps to strategize and make the most out of a game that has been played quite a bit. We have played so much to date, that we need to try modifying so all of the easy cards are removed, and we start with a rumor. Out of the 3 dozen games I have played we have lost not one time. Most aren't posted on the stats here because I don't really remember them at all, but we are at a 100% win ratio with 4 heroes, and a handful of 3 heroes. Not to say we didn't come damn close to losing 90% of them, but the dice gods were in our favor when we needed them the most.

 

That record is really impressive!  All the more so since you intentionally make it harder on yourself?  Sorry, sorry it's just hard for me to believe someone would DO that with this game.   Saaaaaay I'll be YOUR Jackie is just fine isn't she?  I'll bet she never had to look in the face of her own demise!  Oh sure, your Jackie can still see through Time while mine is too freaked to even watch My Little Pony! Yeah I bet that's it!  I don't suck you just still have working pieces!

 

Oooooooor it could just be that you took the most relevant information that you could about a stochastic system and applied the most reasonable next steps based on information that during the game is mostly unrevealed to affect the dynamic equation by seeing how it's most likely to move.  Wow.  So your psychic really DOES work better.....

 

I TOTALLY called it!!


"Hastur. Hastur. Hastur. Suck it, my girlfriend is Science!"
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#11 xodarap

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Posted 05 July 2014 - 11:04 AM

Aye, so am I. Additionally, I believe these reports are really interesting, especially for those who need some strategic help on "who to send where and what are the risk connected"

 

Another sucker for crunching data?  Then I would humbly request that you also read my response to Ricedlwit about 3 posts above.  Oh.  An' totally ignore the fact that it's my 101st post.  Totally coincidental.  Honest. 

 

Okay enough jokes, I really DO wonder if you guys have ever thought of putting your heads and considerable amount of work together to create something not so much for the players, but for FFG.  I dunno' why this isn't already an idea with all the work you and people like Ricedlwit have done but what about designing a program to help FFG with simulated PLAYTESTING.  I know actual people testing is best but with all the data you guys can crunch I really feel like between all of you that you could make something really helpful to them and to us.  Imagine if FFG used your data to simulate 10,000 games?  You all know as well as I do that the more data, the more detail.  I believe with such a program that the balance of FFG games could be greatly improved.  Things could be found about games during simulations that would even make FAQs and Errata a thing of the past.  Nothing is impossible with Science that's what makes it so great! 

 

You want you're work to be valuable and mean something. (Judging by the number of downloads it is, and does.) You want your work to be appreciated and remembered.  Think from the perspective of an FFG fan or someone who really wants them to succeed.  What would be MORE appreciated or remembered than giving FFG the one thing that would make ALL of their games better?

 

In other words you guys are great Firefighters but what if you could solve the problems BEFORE they were problems?  Remember that most players won't hop on line to make a game work, they'll just stop playing. 


"Hastur. Hastur. Hastur. Suck it, my girlfriend is Science!"
-Will Wheaton-




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