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#101 akodo1

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 08:39 PM

 

I've never been suspect of anyone's dice but at the imdaar tourney the last round I played the guy would roll 3 defense dice and got 3 evades 3 times in a row and another guy was watching our game and said to me "ya he does that" so apparently it happened in his game too. Could be just luck but then again maybe not. I don't know but it was the first time I suspected something. Anyone know the probability of rolling 3 dice and showing 3 evades 3 times in a row? Just curious is all.

The odds of successfully rolling nine evades on nine rolls is approximately 6802:1!

 

My very first tournament 2 weeks ago at FFG one opponent on his first shot rolled 3 red and got 3 hits.  He repeated this same feat 2 more times, with a few crit results.  We aren't even talking focuses changed to hits, just raw hits.

 

 

I had Chewie and a pair of B-wings, so I was capable of absorbing a sizable about of damage, but still, brutal brutal brutal.  His dice did cool down to normal after that.

 

I ended up managing to down a single X wing of his and when time was called I had all 3 ships left, (both the Falcon and a B was down to it's last hull, the other B had lost it's shields but had all hull)



#102 Explosive Ewok

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 08:49 PM

I think OP gave up on this thread a long time ago...

 

 

:lol: 


"The world is like a ride at an amusement park, and when you choose to go on it you think it's real because that's how powerful our minds really are..."

#103 Mikael Hasselstein

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 10:20 PM

I think OP gave up on this thread a long time ago...


I wonder why. It keeps getting better.
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#104 macar

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 11:04 PM

So the first die I rolled 300 times I got these results

 

Evade - 123 = 41%

Focus - 61 = 20.33%

Blank - 116 = 38.66%

 

the second die I tried was a translucent die

 

Evade - 100 = 33.33%

Focus - 79 = 26.33

Blank - 121 = 40.33%

 

I went back to an original die for the last one

 

Evade - 101 = 33.66%

Focus - 94 = 31.33%

Blank - 105 = 35%

 

Lastly I'll add the 3 dice combined and see where we are at near a thousand rolls

 

Evade - 324 = 36%

Focus - 234 = 26%

Blank - 342 = 38%

 

Interesting! The more I roll the dice the closer I come to the % each symbol covers on the face of the dice. :rolleyes:

Evade 37.5%

Blank 37.5%

Focus 25%

These were the results we should expect to see as 3/8 of the die are Blank, 3/8 of the die are Evade and 2/8 are Focus. we ended with 1% of each of these after 900 rolls. Something tells me if I rolled 900 more we would be with in 1/2 % of the expected result. I did notice Streaks of Evades and Blanks as I rolled the dice and if you took a smaller sample during one of these streaks it would lead you to believe the dice are unbalanced. There was even a period where I rolled 3 evade vs 18 blanks.

 

Here is my question for the OP. If i flip a quarter 9 times and it comes up heads each time, what are the odds it will come up heads again if i flip it one more time?

 

Great job man, this fits more to the OP and really anyone who has dice credibility issues.


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#105 Tankboy

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 04:06 AM

OP "These dice are the ones you are looking for (wave of hand), go about your business" 

 

OP, You sound like a classic case of a bad workman blaming his tools............

 

Is there anything wrong with the dice, no, can some muppet doctor some, maybe, but in that instance the dice will be the least of your worries because chances are he/she will have decided to cheat a few ways i would suspect.


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#106 godofcheese

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 04:43 AM

 

Simply... there is no substitute for the FFG dice.. this should have been the first answer... optionally, there is an ap for the dice, but this could only be used if your opponent allows it....


The FFG Dice App does not require your opponents permission to be used, only that it is visible to both players at all times.

Jim

 

And that your opponant has the right to request that both players use the app.


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#107 Asgo

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 05:27 AM

This one time I threw some dice and a gas pipeline exploded on the other side of the planet. Clearly my dice are rigged and OP.

isn't that the same logic which links numbers of pirates and global warming, according to the pastafarianism? :)



#108 Rekkon

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 05:50 AM

correlation.png


Edited by Rekkon, 13 June 2014 - 05:50 AM.

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#109 Jaden Ckast

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 06:16 AM

[quote name="Sideslip" post="1117759" timestamp="1402583136"][quote name="Aminar" post="1117701" timestamp="1402580355"]
[quote name="magadizer" post="1117695" timestamp="1402580123"]
[quote name="Sideslip" post="1117686" timestamp="1402579461"]
[quote name="Jaden Ckast" post="1117183" timestamp="1402529922"]
I've never been suspect of anyone's dice but at the imdaar tourney the last round I played the guy would roll 3 defense dice and got 3 evades 3 times in a row and another guy was watching our game and said to me "ya he does that" so apparently it happened in his game too. Could be just luck but then again maybe not. I don't know but it was the first time I suspected something. Anyone know the probability of rolling 3 dice and showing 3 evades 3 times in a row? Just curious is all.
[/quote]
The odds of successfully rolling nine evades on nine rolls is approximately 6802:1![/quote]
What are the odds of rolling 4 blanks....twice! :) Just ribbing ya.[/quote]
With focus. .00000017 or
Without focus. .00000029
[/quote]
They were not consecutive rolls, but that was nevertheless a very unhappy Phantom.
 
No these were consecutive attacks of mine. I had an ors and 2 b's left on the table attacking dark curse. Attacked with the b's first. 1st attack rolled 2 hits he rolled 3 evades no focus needed. Next B 1 hit 1 crit and he rolls 3 evades. By this time I'm going geeze this brutal and everyone was laughing and I'm thinking it's alright he wasted all his rolls already I'll get something through on this attack. Rolled 2 dice and showed 2 hits yehaaa finally some luck and he rolls 3 evades yet again. It was brutal especially because whoever won that round moved on to the final table. I was 2 wins and 1 loss and he had the same record and after beating me he moved into 2nd place for the final match.

#110 Sideslip

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 07:24 AM

No these were consecutive attacks of mine. I had an ors and 2 b's left on the table attacking dark curse. Attacked with the b's first. 1st attack rolled 2 hits he rolled 3 evades no focus needed. Next B 1 hit 1 crit and he rolls 3 evades. By this time I'm going geeze this brutal and everyone was laughing and I'm thinking it's alright he wasted all his rolls already I'll get something through on this attack. Rolled 2 dice and showed 2 hits yehaaa finally some luck and he rolls 3 evades yet again. It was brutal especially because whoever won that round moved on to the final table. I was 2 wins and 1 loss and he had the same record and after beating me he moved into 2nd place for the final match.

The 6802:1 were the odds against Dark Curse rolling only evades on three consecutive rolls.

 

Magadizer mentioned a game that he and I played a few days ago in which I twice rolled all blanks on a cloaked phantom. In that case, the bad rolls were not consecutive, so I couldn't determine the probability for those rolls.



#111 Swedge

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 07:52 AM

seriously as has been mentioned the Dice app is pretty cool...  


anybody in the Sumter S.C. area???


#112 Krynn007

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 08:07 AM

seriously as has been mentioned the Dice app is pretty cool...

I don't know.
Just something about pushing a button and letting a program spit out random numbers.
At least when I have dice in my hand is like I'm in control.... Somewhat.
3 xwing, 2 awings, 2 bwings,1 ywing, 1 Falcon, 1hwk, 1 ewing, 2 z95, 1 GR-75 medium transport, 1 CR90 Corvette ,4 tie fighters, 2 interceptors, 1 imperial aces, 2 bombers, 1 tie adv, 1 shuttle, 1 Firespray, 2 phantom, 1 tie defender

#113 Swedge

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 08:13 AM

well it beats having dice bounce of the board and knock over ships!! lol  and it the app does make cool sound effects..lol  


anybody in the Sumter S.C. area???


#114 Krynn007

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 08:59 AM

Ok the cool sound effects kind of have me sold, but I don't know.

Just something about rolling the dice myself.
You know when the dice get hot you kind of get this feeling of being in the zone.
Or
When there not, you still feel like if you can just roll them right you can get out of the rut.

Just something I don't see the dice app doing.
I almost threw the dice in the woods. Don't want to do that with my phone lol. Easier to replace 5 dollar dice than whatever this phone cost
3 xwing, 2 awings, 2 bwings,1 ywing, 1 Falcon, 1hwk, 1 ewing, 2 z95, 1 GR-75 medium transport, 1 CR90 Corvette ,4 tie fighters, 2 interceptors, 1 imperial aces, 2 bombers, 1 tie adv, 1 shuttle, 1 Firespray, 2 phantom, 1 tie defender

#115 bzinfinity

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 09:20 AM

So two things - 

 

First of all, there was a running joke at my AIA event regarding one of my ships and the dice.

 

My Red Squad X-Wing with the Number 2 marker on it was straight up invincible. In three matches, he took a total of one shield worth of damage despite 18-20 attempts at attacking.The ultimate F YOU dice roll was a range 1 shot from Wedge - even with reduced agility and added red dice, he walked away unscathed.

 

People killed my other ships with no problems whatsoever, but the number 2 marker was using the force. I know for a fact that at one point, because I started to count, I rolled 7 times in a row with all evades, twice through an asteroid, which was even better. 

 

My second opponent told the third as the game started "Hey, don't shoot at number 2, it's a waste of your time."

 

In one round of jousting, I rolled blanks on a B-Wing, blanks on a B-Wing, blanks on a Red, 3 evades on Number 2 Red. I literally laughed out loud and my opponent and I joked about switching my defense dice when rolling for number 2. 

 

Anyways - I told you that to tell you this - 

 

There are plenty of games in the world that use no dice whatsoever, and I actually prefer them because the element of luck is removed. Games like Puerto Rico, etc. However, in X-Wing, I have come to understand the dice are the majority of the fun most of the time. Without the dice, this game would be very boring. 

 

Just FYI - I have been using the dice app as of late because both players can use it on the tablet and there are no dice pinging around the board to move the ships. I actually prefer it to the dice tower I was using before. FFG seems satisfied with the randomization of the app, so I am too, I reckon. 

 

Just remember - the people who go on "streaks" in Vegas use the same dice the guy before them was using. Later on in the night, someone else will use them and lose thousands of dollars. 

 

I think the only way to really test this theory to see if you have "bad" dice would be to test them via floating or literally thousands of rolls to see if the averages bear out your observations. Otherwise they are only that - observations. 

 

And if my history playing dice games is to be believed, there are periods of time in which the best option is literally to throw your current set in the trash and start over with new ones, which I have done several times. Superstition is only superstition when it doesn't work :)


Edited by bzinfinity, 13 June 2014 - 09:21 AM.

Rebels: (4)X-Wing,(2)Y-Wing,(3)B-Wing,(2)HWK,(1)YT-1300,(2)A-Wing,(1) GR-75,(1)CR90,(2)E-Wing,(4)Z-95

Imps: (5)TIEs,(3)Squints,(3)Lambda,(2)Firespray,(1)TIE Advanced,(3) TIE Bomber,(2) Defender,(2)Phantom

 

"What the hell is an aluminum falcon?" - Robot Chicken





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