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The Math of Eldritch Horror


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#1 Julia

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 01:29 PM

So, after some time spent on reading cards, gathering details and crunching numbers, the stochastic analysis of Eldritch Horror (and Forsaken Lore) is now completed.

 

In case some is interested in a deeper knowledge of the structure of the game, I posted the analysis on the BGG (not possible to up files here, sorry folks). Go here, if interested, download it & gently, thumb the entry.

 

If there's a good feedback, and interest is shown, I'll write the coming ones (stochastics for Research Encounters and all the rest) and I'll update the various files as soon as further expansions are published.


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#2 squad

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 02:56 PM

Very nicely done Julia!

 

I wouldn't have thought to go into depth about how improvements affect the gate sealing chances, but that looks pretty important for figuring out the best strategy for who to send to seal.

 

I'd love to see how the research encounters turn out.  With this game turning out to be the toughest to beat out of the Arkham line, it seems effective division of labor is essential.


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#3 Julia

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 03:41 PM

Thanks for taking the time to look at the file, Squad :)

 

Research encounters were analyzed in two different ways: according to the minimum number of clues you can gain (some encounters allow you to pass an extra test to gain +1 clue; in this case the conditional probability was not considered, with the main aim to keep the math model as easy as possible), and according to the stats checked (what AO requires what stat to be tested the most, and so on). And this was done generally (considering all encounters in just one "research pot", if you allow me the neologism), and considering the three different environments (city, wilderness, sea) separately.

 

As you can immagine, it's a lot of numbers and transforming this into an article could be rather longish. But, as said, I'll be happy to do it :)


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#4 ricedwlit

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 08:28 PM

Impressive work.  

 

I've been working on a creating a summary sheet for Eldritch Horror similar to what I prepared for Arkham Horror; however with respect to other Worlds this one blows my stuff away.  Fortunately, just as with AH, the goal of the my info is to give broad information on many topics, so you've not rendered my work obsolete. :) .  


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#5 Julia

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Posted 10 June 2014 - 12:52 AM

Thanks :)

 

Also for the link to your AH file. Didn't know it existed, and actually it's of great help :)


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#6 The Professor

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 03:40 AM

Julia,

 

      Nice work, my friend!  It's great to see the blending of art and science, with a dash of passion for your games!

 

Ciao,

Joe


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#7 Julia

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 10:51 AM

Thanks Joe :) You know, the mad scientist I live with... :D


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#8 The Professor

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 07:34 PM

yeah, but he's a great guy...even with all that sciency madness...


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#9 Julia

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 07:40 AM

Hi folks,

 

time to go deeper with our stochastic analysis of EH!

What are the stats most often tested during Research Encounters? Are all AOs demanding us to test the same attributes? Are all space types on the board (City, Wilderness, Sea) equally balanced? Do all AOs reward us with the same number of clues? How to choose the best Investigator to gain clues agains Yog or another AO?

Go here and check the new file :)


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