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Winterscale or Chorda?


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#21 Erathia

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 05:07 PM

Wow, that's pretty generous.  Let's see here.

 

I agree that Winterscale would have approx. 50 colonized systems, and probably in excess of 200 colonies spread through those systems.  I'd give him 100 ships, of which 1 would be his grand cruiser, 3 would be cruisers, 6 would be escorts, and 90 would be various sort of merchants and raiders, all working on various endeavors.  He probably has a dozen Wayfarer stations, too, and maybe some that are larger.  He would probably have an equal number of ships working for him: chartist captains, mercenaries, privateers, outright priates, other rogue traders, maybe even xenos.

 

I'd put Chorda at around 100 ships, also, but her battle fleet would be much smaller, probably her cruiser, a couple light cruisers, and 5 escorts.  The remainder would be mostly frigates, destroyers, and raiders, though there would still be some merchant vessels.  Her "empire" would probably touch as many, if not more systems, than Winterscale's, but instead of colonies she'd have trade stations.  A lot of her business in the Expanse would be "extralegal."  According to the sources, much of her wealth is still tied up in other sectors and endeavors, so her overall wealth in the Expanse would not rival Winterscale's at all.  Also, she'd have as many "hireling" vessels as ships in her presonal, private fleet.

 

Saul would be my spoiler.  He'd have nearly 100 vessels, too, and they'd all be merchants, every single one of them.  He hires his guns, which means that he has a higher profit margin.  So while the Big Two have the glory currently, Saul is catching up and passing them, hoping they will go to war with each other so that he can pick up the leavings.

 

Given how my PCs treat ship acquisition, and that these two dynasties have been established for awhile I wanted them to actually be representably powerful opponents. Their fleets are composed of the Rogue Trader, Free Captain and Raider groups they have defeated and absorbed into their empires. They're not particularly loyal though, so how far they can be counted on is hard to say.

 

Transports I feel are actually quite plentiful, so I imagine Saul's fleet is even larger than that, but has the slight problem of not having as many available guns. He would likely be able to buy the loyalty of a large number of these fleets.


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#22 BaronIveagh

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 06:06 PM

Well, one, in the fluff Chorda's wealth is more in the Calyxis Sector than the expanse.  The simple way for winterscale to cripple her would be to make sure that her more 'interesting' sources of income came to the attention of the Inquisition.



#23 Errant Knight

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 07:47 PM

All this brings up some interesting questions of scale.  Here are the observations I've made.

 

The Koronus Expanse has somewhere between 100k-300k stars.  Of those, between 5k-20k should have at least a moon or space station inhabited by humans, if not a planet or three.  Most of them are undiscovered, or un-rediscovered.  Of those, between 1000-3000 are starfaring (or at least planet-faring).  They would need between 500-6000 merchantmen to service them.  Assuming averages, and that most are un-rediscovered, I settled on 2000-3000 merchant ships.

 

The great Indies companies of the 15th-19th centuries combined never accounted for more than 15% of gross world tonnage at their height, and far more often less than 5%.  Most of their carriers were privately contracted.

 

If Winterscale, Chorda, and Saul represent the great Indies companies of the Expanse, then combined they would have between 100-450 of those ships under their direct control.  I've went for a 300 ship model in the last campaign I ran.  I didn't bother with this stuff in the first two, but these questions had always nagged me.

 

Battlefleet Koronus seems to have 24-48 capital ships.  If the upper limit is assumed then three-quarters of them would be light cruisers, half toward the lower end.  GWs decision to go with the term "light cruiser" at all seems pointless to me, given that in the real world that was a legal definition based on a couple of aberrant early 20-century treaties that were short-lived and un-renewed, but what the heck.  If there are 2 escorts out there for every capital ship, the Battlefleet Koronus has 70-150 warships, which is very proportionately accurate with the real-world for the 2k-3k merchant ship model until very recent times.

 

I've gone with the lower end for the Imperial Navy in my campaign and made up the rest of the numbers with Rogue Traders.



#24 Nameless2all

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Posted 10 June 2014 - 03:23 AM

Wow, that's pretty generous.  Let's see here.

 

I agree that Winterscale would have approx. 50 colonized systems, and probably in excess of 200 colonies spread through those systems.  I'd give him 100 ships, of which 1 would be his grand cruiser, 3 would be cruisers, 6 would be escorts, and 90 would be various sort of merchants and raiders, all working on various endeavors.  He probably has a dozen Wayfarer stations, too, and maybe some that are larger.  He would probably have an equal number of ships working for him: chartist captains, mercenaries, privateers, outright priates, other rogue traders, maybe even xenos.

 

I'd put Chorda at around 100 ships, also, but her battle fleet would be much smaller, probably her cruiser, a couple light cruisers, and 5 escorts.  The remainder would be mostly frigates, destroyers, and raiders, though there would still be some merchant vessels.  Her "empire" would probably touch as many, if not more systems, than Winterscale's, but instead of colonies she'd have trade stations.  A lot of her business in the Expanse would be "extralegal."  According to the sources, much of her wealth is still tied up in other sectors and endeavors, so her overall wealth in the Expanse would not rival Winterscale's at all.  Also, she'd have as many "hireling" vessels as ships in her presonal, private fleet.

 

Saul would be my spoiler.  He'd have nearly 100 vessels, too, and they'd all be merchants, every single one of them.  He hires his guns, which means that he has a higher profit margin.  So while the Big Two have the glory currently, Saul is catching up and passing them, hoping they will go to war with each other so that he can pick up the leavings.

I like this number.  It should be noted that both parties have several lesser RT's, Free Captains, Guns-for-hire, etc. that work for them.  Winterscale is noted to having more with warships.  So, you could say Winterscale has anywhere between 10-20 RT's (with no names of importance), Free Captains, Guns-for-hire, etc. working for him.  On average, 2 line ships per powerful yet non-important NPC, so you have another 20 to 40 line ships that Winterscale could have deals with that help him "police" his realm(s).

 

Chorda could have a small bit less number of people, but with the smaller line ships like Frigates, Raiders, and such, the numbers are probably the same if not more.  Just food for thought.


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#25 Iku Rex

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Posted 10 June 2014 - 03:36 AM

The Koronus Expanse has somewhere between 100k-300k stars.

More like 30 000 from what I could find.

(Based on the assumption that the Koronus Expanse is roughly the size of a typical sector, a 200 LY cube.)
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#26 Errant Knight

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Posted 10 June 2014 - 07:40 AM

Okay, let's go with that figure, 200 LY cubed.  That would be 8 million cubic light years.  If the stars in the Koronus expanse are spaced an average of 1 parsec apart, there would be 296,296 stars.  That's give us our upper number.  Assuming the stars are more distantly spaced as the galaxy approaches the Halo (they seem to be, but there's some brown dwarf arguments stuck in there), what then is the average parsec in the Koronus Expanse?  I went with 4 LY, which gives us 125k stars, and I rounded down to the nearest big "0."  Both these numbers are within the margin of error, but so is 30k, or even 10k, or 2 million.  Probably our biggest assumption here is that the Koronus Expanse is indeed an "average sector."

 

And btw, in the first two campaigns I ran, I went with a parsec being 10 LY, resulting in only 8,000 stars in the Expanse, which also worked pretty well.  In this last campaign I've run, though, I wanted more and larger Rogue Trader fleets out there.  While my star density figures are based on some pretty sketchy Terra circa-21st century science, my merchant and warship figures are based on real world numbers and tonnage.  Heh.  Those are also pretty questionable when comes to applying them to the vastness of the galaxy, but I made do with what I had available.


Edited by Errant Knight, 10 June 2014 - 08:00 AM.


#27 Iku Rex

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Posted 10 June 2014 - 08:09 AM

Okay, let's go with that figure, 200 LY cubed.  That would be 8 million cubic light years.  If the stars in the Koronus expanse are spaced an average of 1 parsec apart, there would be 296, 296 stars.  That's give us our upper number.  Assuming the stars are more distantly spaced as the galaxy approaches the Halo (they seem to be, but there's some brown dwarf arguments stuck in there), what then is the average parsec in the Koronus Expanse?  I went with 4 LY, which gives us 125k stars, and I rounded down to the nearest big "0."  Both these numbers are within the margin of error, but so is 30k, or even 10k, or 2 million.

 

Stellar density near Sol is estimated as 0.004 stars per cubic light year.

8 million cubic light years * 0.004 = 32 000 stars. 

 

Also, from the Core Rulebook (page 315): "Each Segmentum is divided into sectors varying in size according to local demands and stellar density. A typical sector might encompass seven million cubic light years, equivalent to a cube with sides almost 200 light-years long." 

 

(7 million cubic light years * 0.004 = 28 000 stars, and a 191 LY cube.) 

 

Sector sizes vary depending on "local demands and stellar density", so sectors closer to the rim will probably be a bit bigger on average, while having the same approximate number of stars.

 

 

 

I figure most of those star systems are worthless and/or effectively inaccessible by warp travel.


Edited by Iku Rex, 10 June 2014 - 08:10 AM.


#28 Errant Knight

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Posted 10 June 2014 - 09:07 AM

Oh!  Countered with Wikipedia!  Check and Ma....oh wait a minute!

 

 

"In the solar neighborhood, the stellar density is about one star per cubic parsec (one parsec is 3.26 light-years). At the Galactic core, around 100 parsecs from the Galactic center, the stellar density has risen to 100 per cubic parsec, crowded together because of gravity."

 

http://abyss.uoregon...ures/lec26.html

 

And seriously, if you want to get into the science of it, try this out for some light reading...

 

http://www.astro.was...tomographyI.pdf

 

That will give you commonly accepted numbers of near-space.  Or if you're into the whole dark matter thingie, try this...

 

http://www.astro.cal...Ay20-Lec16x.pdf

 

And if you want to know how this compares to other galaxies (it's hard to measure our own galaxy...the whole forest through trees thing) try this...

 

https://www.physics....insonetal04.pdf

 

My favorite part of this last one is near the end of the presentation..."Possible solution: 

Stars won't fit in your universe? Get a new universe! Modern world models use ΛCDM cosmology and allow for more proper time per redshift than other models."

 

And let's not forget...

 

"A typical mass density for a globular cluster is 70 MSun pc3, which is 500 times the mass density near the Sun."

 

http://en.wikipedia....Stellar_density

 

Off-hand, I can think of 2 globular clusters alluded to in the Koronus Expanse.  Of course, this measures mass densities of suns, not number of suns.  A single B-IIa can account for a lot of suns!

 

 

Look, I think all we really want are some numbers that work within our conceptual framework of ship numbers.  We all want to know the scale of fleets, or that's what I thought the discussion was.  That number will be necessitated by the mass and volume of goods flowing from operational starports and landing sites.  How many ships does it take to move this stuff without the warehouses piling up?

 

I think I gave some very reasonable and workable numbers.  I also gave some margins of error that I've worked with in the past.  Whether you go with the 8k or 300k figure, or 32k if that's your Gospel sticking point, just take the number of ships I reckoned with and divide your holy gospel by those numbers.

 

Or don't.  Make your own universe!  I always chuckle when the fanboys start quoting facts and figures derived from sources that more than likely majored in creative writing.  Not that I have a problem with that sort of degree, it's just not a good source to quote figures from.  There are notable exceptions, of course.  David Brin comes to mind.



#29 Annaamarth

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Posted 10 June 2014 - 07:02 PM

Poul Anderson taught me Tau and it's ramifications- and I'm not talking about the blueberries.

 

The great thing about the numbers you came up with, Errant Knight, is that they seem to be scalable.  If you want to use a smaller number of stars for your sector, reduce the number of ships proportionally, no?  Simple.


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#30 Errant Knight

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Posted 10 June 2014 - 07:09 PM

Absolutely.  Erathia wants big fleets, so to keep it believable, use a larger number of stars.  Iku Rex wants a smaller number of stars.  Fine, also, just keep in mind that this entails smaller fleets.  There are other factors that could increase the density of a merchant marine, but that's something people should at least consider as they create their campaign worlds.  Okay, the average person out there doesn't always consider such things, but we should play to the best in our world, not the average.



#31 Iku Rex

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Posted 11 June 2014 - 12:55 PM

"In the solar neighborhood, the stellar density is about one star per cubic parsec (one parsec is 3.26 light-years). [...]"
 
http://abyss.uoregon...ures/lec26.html

Yeah, I'm pretty confident that's BS. One star per cubic parsec means we should find around 500 stars within 5 parsecs of the Sun. Do we? Nope. Maybe 60. (Depending on how you define "star".) There may well be more of course, but 450 more seems excessive.

My guess is your guy forgot a "0." . Make it 0.1 stars per cubic parsec and you're probably not far off.


As for the 0.004 per cubic LY estimate, it is not some random number made up by a Wikipedia-editor.
 

Here's one source:
In the vicinity of the Sun, stellar density
can be determined from the various
surveys of nearby stars and from estimates
of their completeness. For example,
Wilhelm Gliese’s catalog of nearby stars, a
commonly used resource, contains 1,049
stars in a volume within a radius of 65 lightyears.
This is a density of about 0.001 stars
per cubic light-year. However, even this
catalog is incomplete, and its incompleteness
is probably attributable to the fact
that it is difficult to detect the faintest stars
and faint companions, especially extremely
faint stars such as brown dwarfs.
In short, the true density of stars in
the solar neighbourhood is difficult to
establish. The value most commonly
quoted is 0.003 stars per cubic light-year,
a value obtained by integrating the van
Rhijn luminosity function with a cutoff
taken M = 14.3. This is, however, distinctly
smaller than the true density as calculated
for the most complete sampling
volume discussed above and is therefore
an underestimate. Gliese has estimated
that when incompleteness of the catalogs
is taken into account, the true stellar density
is on the order of 0.004 stars per cubic
light-year
, which includes the probable
number of unseen companions of multiple
systems.

-- from "The Milky Way and Beyond", page 35. Published in 2010 by Britannica Educational Publishing.

So, 0.004 is actually the high estimate.
 

And seriously, if you want to get into the science of it, try this out for some light reading...

Posting random pdfs you found with Google isn't going to convince me that you have some special insight. If any of those links contain relevant information, by all means, refer me to to the important bit.
 

[b]Off-hand, I can think of 2 globular clusters alluded to in the Koronus Expanse.

Off-hand, that sounds very unlikely, both with regards to the fluff and to the real world science.
 

Look, I think all we really want are some numbers that work within our conceptual framework of ship numbers.  We all want to know the scale of fleets, or that's what I thought the discussion was.  That number will be necessitated by the mass and volume of goods flowing from operational starports and landing sites.  How many ships does it take to move this stuff without the warehouses piling up?
 
I think I gave some very reasonable and workable numbers.

I don't think you did. It's hard to offer more specific criticism, since you gave no in-depth justification for most of your numbers.

Not that I care much. It makes more sense to start by guesstimating the number of ships and/or inhabited worlds based on the fluff. Then you go from there. If the fluff suggests that there are, say, a few hundred systems in the Expanse populuated by humans, any line of reasoning that concludes that there are 10 000 is flawed.

 

Whether you go with the 8k or 300k figure, or 32k if that's your Gospel sticking point, just take the number of ships I reckoned with and divide your holy gospel by those numbers.

I'm not sure how you got from "more like 30 000 from what I could find" and calculations of 28 000 and 32 000, to "holy gospel"... You're the one getting exited because I pointed out one problem (out of several) with your "reasonable numbers".


Edited by Iku Rex, 11 June 2014 - 01:18 PM.


#32 Errant Knight

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Posted 11 June 2014 - 10:09 PM

I can't respond much to this.  From what I can see, your intuition trumps the bazillions of hours of observations made by astronomers with considerable education and access to this world's best telescopes.  Maybe they misplaced a decimal point?  That's your reaction?  Really?  Ok, live in that world.  Lots of people watch Fox "News."

 

You throw out a Wiki stub as your source.  You pooh-poohed Wash U, Oregon U, Cal Tech, and Rutgers' astronomy departments, and let's be honest, you didn't bother to read them or you wouldn't have responded the way you did.  And, to follow up, you whip out the Encyclopedia Britannica.  Nature magazine found Wikipedia, sans typos, to be more accurate than Britannica.  Your own source mentions three distinct "commonly accepted" calcuations.  That's a walking talking oxymoron.

 

If you want to create your game world by basing your numbers on the "fluff," whatever that is, knock yourself out.  Seriously.  Have fun.  I'd get laughed at, but maybe my audience is tougher than yours.  Not that I'm asking for an easier audience.  I'll build my game worlds based on the universe I live in, which changes every decade, btw, as we learn more about it.

 

If you want to take a poke at any of my other numbers, feel free.  I'll be happy to quote numbers from books or websites you're likely to never read.  Expect some mistakes, though, because I'll be quoting from memory.  You've already made it clear that reaching behind me to look up exact figures is a waste of time.



#33 Marwynn

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 04:44 AM

More to the point, it's only tangentially related to the topic.
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#34 Iku Rex

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 04:54 AM

I can't respond much to this.  From what I can see, your intuition trumps the bazillions of hours of observations made by astronomers with considerable education and access to this world's best telescopes.  Maybe they misplaced a decimal point?  That's your reaction?  Really?  Ok, live in that world.  Lots of people watch Fox "News."

Let's try to keep this straight. I'm the one advocating the mainstream opinion. I have posted a respected source, and included the reasoning behind the numbers.

Your indisputable source is a single sentence one guy wrote on his webpage.

Then you added some random pdfs you found with Google. But you are incapable of explaining why they are relevant, or of quoting the relevant part. How very odd.

You also seem to have overlooked my little experiment above. Let's try again, with more detail.

A sphere with a 5 parsec radius around the Sun has a volume of around 524 cubic parsecs. Thus, your prediction is that we'll find around 500 stars in this volume of space. My number suggests around 70.

If only there was some way to test these predictions!

But wait, there is. After all, we have "bazillions of hours of observations made by astronomers with considerable education and access to this world's best telescopes", as you put it above.

I wonder what they've found...

Oh, right. Around 60 stars. http://en.wikipedia....nd_brown_dwarfs

(I know, I know - you'll probably be along shortly to explain how anything written on Wikipedia is automatically wrong, with no need to offer any evidence.)
 

... "fluff," whatever that is, ...

 
For future reference, "fluff" is the story elements of the game – characters, setting, plot, flavor, etc.
 

I'd get laughed at, but maybe my audience is tougher than yours.  Not that I'm asking for an easier audience.  I'll build my game worlds based on the universe I live in, which changes every decade, btw, as we learn more about it.

You seem to be very confused Errant Knight. We're talking about the 40K universe. Not your special snowflake homebrew setting.

I would however love to see your "real world" numbers for human settlement patters and safe warp routes between stars in the Koronus Expanse, or trade figures and freighter cargo capacity.

I didn't even know scientists had cracked the secret of warp travel in the "real world". This is very exiting! And scary. Are they taking the necessary precautions to protect against demonic incursions?! Is this information perhaps also hidden somewhere in the paper you posted earlier?

#35 Errant Knight

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 08:51 AM

I pointed out earlier that my numbers for merchant ships per capita, the density of ports-of-call, etc. were based off real world examples of the15th-19th centuries, and were sketchy to apply to interstellar commerce, but that's all I really had to go with.  The numbers work for me, though.  If you want to quote me out of context to cover your tracks, feel free.  I'll still sleep well tonight.

 

What I find exciting from an RPG standpoint is the number of stellar remnants, brown dwarfs, and other objects with little or no luminosity that might contain planets rich in minerals.  There is a lot of unaccounted for energy/matter in the universe and scientists are beginning to account for some of it.  This gives me, as GM, a huge number of new environments I can populate my map with for my players, and an even greater number of new and original endeavors for them.

 

So thank you Iku Rex.  Without you I would not have looked up some of this stuff and furthered my knowledge of the stars.  I've already begun to draw up an endeavor based around a stellar remnant I'll merge with a randomly-generated system from Stars in Inequity.  It's very promising.



#36 Marwynn

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Posted 16 June 2014 - 11:53 AM

Expanding this a bit further, should there be a Winterscale-Chorda War, which side would other named dynasties support?

 

Saul would likely remain neutral. 

 

Armengarde would likely work for both sides, running smuggling operations. But there's a rivalry there with House Saul that could become a second, smaller war within the larger one. 

 

 


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#37 Lady Kataline Jianwei

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Posted 16 June 2014 - 03:39 PM

I think that would be ultimately up to the GM where each of the other named RTs land. I imagine most would play both sides against each other or only sign on for short contracts or over particular locations.

 

The only clear RT I'd put in Winterscale's camp is Sarvus Trask. Otherwise, just take a list of all the RTs and flip a coin. I imagine most might take the opportunity to raid both sides. Why not get richer and more powerful at the expense of two of the largest dynasties? Though once the dust settles you have to hope that the victor is too exhausted to hunt you down.

 

Oh I will say that Wrath Umboldt would stay out of the fighting. On account that he sits on Port Wander and hands out advise and probably has a giant tip jar. His advise would probably to not get involved.

 

I don't think the Saul/Armengarde rivalry would got hot or get sucked into a bigger Winterscale/Chorda fight. The Winterscale/Chorda conflict would likely be centered around Lucien's Breath and radiate out from there. Saul's rivalry with Armengarde is over shipping and their rivalry actually helps them in the long run. It forces Saul to come up with new ways to tighten down on smuggling while Armengarde has to come up with ways around that. A shooting war with them would be bad for business. At least that is my take on their relationship from their blurbs. Though if they did get into a fight my money would be on Saul. His PF is stated at 93 to Armengarde's 50. Saul has the coin to hire all the guns he needs. (EotA 108, 111)


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#38 Sebastian Yorke

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 04:24 PM

I laughed so hard at the brief flamewars that took place here that I have to bring this back to life.


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#39 Errant Knight

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 08:15 AM

It's all a matter of perspective.  When you look into the sky, what do you see?

 

A region of space where FTL-drive is nearly impossible might be too full of gas clouds, stars spaced closely together, intersecting gravity wells, and other phenomena that tend to destroy starships that attempt FTL-travel.  One person might call it Globular Cluster X-427.  Another person might call it the Screaming Vortex.  One person might want to explain why a thing becomes impossible.  Another person might simply write it off as Warp magic and leave well enough alone.  Quite frankly, the end result is the same.






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